🌇 Brazil is more urban than you think

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Due to Good Friday and the Tiradentes federal holiday on Friday and Monday, respectively, our Brazil Daily newsletter will be back on Tuesday, Apr. 22.

Built fast, but uneven: the story of Brazil’s urbanization

Known internationally as a major exporter of commodities and for its vast Amazon biome, Brazil has urbanization characteristics that may surprise many — starting with the fact that it is actually one of the most urban countries in the world.

According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), more than 87% of Brazil’s 203 million people lived in cities in 2022 — a rate higher than that of the United States or Germany. The United Nations forecasts Brazil’s urbanization to reach 90% by 2050, compared to a global average of 70%.

Compared to most developed countries, Brazil’s urbanization arrived late, accelerated rapidly and unfolded in a much less organized manner. It was not until the 1970s that Brazil became predominantly urban, driven by internal migration from rural areas to major cities in search of work — a pattern that created the so-called “urban macrocephaly” seen in many Global South countries.

In the early stages of the country’s urbanization, more than half of Brazilians lived in municipalities with populations between 20,000 and 50,000. Over the following decades, the share of the population living in smaller towns declined, while large urban centers swelled.

By 2022, just 319 municipalities — fewer than 6% of the country’s total — were home to 57% of the population. Forty-one cities had populations exceeding half a million, collectively accounting for nearly 30% of Brazil's population.

São Paulo, in particular, stands out. Its metropolitan region is home to 23 million people, with more than 12 million in the city proper. It is the world’s largest megacity outside of Asia.

Urbanization has brought expanded access to public services such as health care and education, but the speed, scale and unplanned nature of this growth deepened inequalities and exposed structural weaknesses.

A study by MapBiomas found that between 1985 and 2020, Brazil’s favelas expanded to an area 11 times the size of Lisbon. The construction of many of these communities took place in risk-prone areas, such as hillsides vulnerable to landslides, with their growth outpacing that of formal urban areas.

Climate change is compounding the vulnerabilities. More frequent heavy rains have exposed deficiencies in urban infrastructure. Fresh data released by the IBGE shows that despite improvements since 2010, nearly half of Brazilians still live on streets without proper drainage systems, with states in the North and Northeast faring the worst.

Shifting patterns in urban growth

Although the largest cities still concentrate much of Brazil’s population, growth in recent decades has been increasingly driven by mid-sized cities, those with between 100,000 and 500,000 residents. In 2010, 25.4% of Brazilians lived in such municipalities; by 2022, that share had risen to 27.3%.

Much of the population growth — about 67% between 2010 and 2022 — occurred outside state capitals, many of which are now losing residents. Salvador, Natal, Belém, and Porto Alegre, for instance, saw their populations shrink by more than 5%.

This shift reflects two trends: the rise of inland cities driven by economic sectors like agribusiness, and the growing appeal of suburban municipalities near major metropolitan centers.

In the state of Minas Gerais, for example, capital Belo Horizonte’s population declined by 2.5% even as its broader metropolitan area grew by 4.4% — a pattern driven in part by the high cost of living in major urban centers.

Middle- and upper-income families have increasingly sought out gated communities in suburban areas, as expansion within major capitals remains largely vertical. Economist Marcelo Neri of the Getulio Vargas Foundation said Brazil’s aging population is also shaping this trend, as older (and often wealthier) citizens seek greater quality of life over proximity to economic hubs.

Building boom. Housing crisis

Despite the boom in construction across major cities, a mismatch persists between the supply of new buildings and the population's needs. A recent report by WRI Brasil found that building expansion has outpaced population growth, likely driven by the spread of business activities and real estate speculation — a phenomenon researchers describe as the financialization of urban space.

Yet, Brazil faces a housing deficit that affects millions. According to the João Pinheiro Foundation, Brazil had a shortfall of more than 6 million homes in 2022, equal to 8% of all occupied housing in the country. São Paulo state alone accounted for a deficit of 1.2 million.

Housing insecurity is particularly acute among women: 62.6% of households facing a housing deficit were headed by women — a disparity tied to lower formal incomes and disproportionate caregiving responsibilities, challenges that weigh most heavily on black women.

Even newly constructed buildings often fall short of modern needs. Raul Juste Lores, an urban planning journalist, told the Caos Planejado podcast that most new Brazilian buildings suffer from poor quality and a lack of preparation for climate shocks such as extreme rain and heat.

“This has nothing to do with money,” he said. “I just returned from Mexico City, and a single neighborhood there has more high-quality contemporary buildings than all of São Paulo.”

As Brazil’s urban landscape continues to evolve, the challenges ahead are not just about accommodating growth, but about building better, more resilient cities for a rapidly changing world.

Quick catch-up

🎒 Cases of violence in schools have more than tripled over the past decade, rising from 3,700 incidents in 2013 to 13,100 in 2023, according to a new analysis by the São Paulo Research Foundation (Fapesp). Cases of assault accounted for half of the incidents reported last year, while verbal abuse made up 23.8% and sexual violence 23.1%.

🏴‍☠️ A surge in pirate attacks on cargo vessels along Amazonian rivers has fueled trauma and driven up local prices of goods such as fuel and food by as much as 10%, according to news website Amazonas Atual. In response, companies are investing in armed escorts and satellite monitoring.

🎧 Brazilian country music tops the charts nationwide, with similar appeal among right-wing (25%) and left-wing (21%) listeners, according to a new survey by Quaest. Gospel music is more popular on the right, while samba and forró dominate among leftist audiences.