🥊 Fighting Spain and migrants

Hello, and welcome to the Latin America Weekly newsletter! In this issue: Spain permanently withdraws its ambassador to Argentina. Gustavo Petro calls for a referendum in Colombia. And Luis Abinader’s re-election in the Dominican Republic. 

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Abinader strolls to re-election amid fear of Haitian migrants 

The Dominican election threw no curveballs, as results were almost perfectly in line with pollsters’ projections, with almost 60 percent of voters casting their ballot for incumbent Luis Abinader. The 57-year-old center-right president secured re-election with no need for a runoff, as he comfortably passed the 50 percent threshold.

Why it matters. The result was another example of voters placing a high value on immigration restrictions, which became the main concern for Dominicans due to the unparalleled humanitarian crisis in next-door neighbor Haiti. 

• As The Brazilian Reportexplained, that was the top-of-mind issue for six out of ten voters — a rate strikingly similar to Mr. Abinader’s vote tally. His decision to heavily restrict Haitian migration has been highly popular.

• A quarter million Haitians (nearly 2 percent of the Dominican population) were deported in 2023, despite criticism from local opponents and international NGOs,who accused the government of racism and human rights violations.

What they are saying. “I will rule for all Dominicans,” Mr. Abinader said as he thanked his two top contenders for promptly conceding defeat. “It is a gesture of respect and a commitment to democracy,” the winner added.

• Leaders from across Latin America, Spain, the U.S., and the European Union all sent their greetings to the re-elected leader. 

Empowered. Originally seen as a low-profile businessman and dismissed as a mere “tayota” — a tasteless fruit included in salad dishes, which Dominican culture uses to describe bland, faceless politicians — Mr. Abinader proved that his critics might have underestimated his piquancy, having made himself into one of the most popular leaders in the continent.

• The win will further empower Mr. Abinader, as the congressional vote also favored him by wide margins. His Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) and its allies will jump from 18 of 32 Senate seats to a stunning 29, giving him almost full control of the upper chamber.

• A final count in the House is still pending, but the government could also reach a supermajority there, although Mr. Abinader vowed to lead a “consensus government” and not simply impose his will on all topics.

Losers. The results also marked a historic loss for the country’s traditional parties. The Dominican Liberation Party (PLD), a center-left group that ruled for four consecutive terms before Mr. Abinader’s first victory, had the most impressive downfall.

• The PLD was forced out after corruption scandals in 2020 and fell to third place. More shockingly, it did not manage to elect even a single senator. 

Mexico next. After Paraguay’s Colorado Party in 2023 and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele earlier this year, the re-election added another exception to the general trend of incumbent losses seen across Latin America since 2019.

• The three of them came from the political right, although Mexico’s upcoming June 2 presidential elections will likely mark the first left-leaning incumbent win since Costa Rica in 2018.

Calendar. In addition to Mexico and El Salvador, 2024’s intense electoral agenda in May included the election of right-winger José Mulino in Panama. After June, expectations are high for decisive votes in Venezuela on July 28 and Uruguay on October 27.

A farcical conflict between Milei and Pedro Sánchez

Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei and Spain’s progressive Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have picked each other as rhetorical rivals, and their ideological fight escalated to the point that Spain announced the “permanent withdrawal” of its ambassador in Buenos Aires.

How it started. The dispute started on May 2, when Spain’s Transport Minister Óscar Puente suggested Mr. Milei might have consumed drugs before a famous campaign outburst in the buildup to his runoff win.

• The Argentinian government replied with a highly aggressive press release saying Spain should focus on the PM’s wife’s corruption allegations instead, questioning multiple aspects of Mr. Sánchez’s government, from negotiations with regional separatists to his attitude towards immigrants who “put Spanish women at risk.”

How it’s going. Three weeks later, the sides are still having a go at each other. Mr. Milei organized a trip to Spain but did not meet with any government authorities. Instead, he spoke at a rally organized by the local far-right party Vox and took aim at President Sánchez’s wife once again.

• Spain recalled its ambassador in Buenos Aires for consultations and demanded an apology. But Mr. Milei doubled down once more, demanding apologies himself for being called “anti-democratic” and labeling Mr. Sánchez a “coward,” leading to Spain’s decision to permanently withdraw its ambassador. 

 Why it matters. As The Brazilian Report explained last year, Spain still has significant influence over Latin American politics. This holds true in Argentina, where the former colonial power is the second-largest foreign investor, only trailing behind the U.S.

• Spain has also been Argentina’s door to the European Union, mediating with the International Monetary Fund and other multilateral institutions. 

Yes, but … The conflict also has a farcical aspect, intentionally hyped by both sides to feed the news cycle and make noise on social media.

• Mr. Sánchez benefits from fighting Vox instead of its center-right Popular Party alternative in the build-up to Europe’s June 9 elections, while the Milei team wants to show him as an international figure beneath any discussion with Argentinian critics.

• Histrionics aside, no real military, monetary, or diplomatic interests have been at stake so far, unlike other recent international conflicts such as those of Ecuador and Mexico.

Bolsonaro playbook. In many ways, Mr. Milei’s attitude is reminiscent of that of Jair Bolsonaro, who picked conflicts with international figures such as Greta Thunberg or Leonardo DiCaprio to fire up his base.

• Analysts highlighted the similarity between this incident and that of Mr. Bolsonaro and France, when the former Brazilian president mocked First Lady Brigitte Macron’s looks on social media. 

What next. Mr. Milei has another trip to Spain planned for next month, when he is scheduled to receive an award from a right-wing think tank. Spanish sources told the Argentinian press that their government is even considering declaring him “persona non grata,” so the soap opera is likely to continue.

Still struggling to pass reforms, Petro now calls for a referendum 

Two months ago, President Gustavo Petro threatened to call on Colombians to reform the country’s Carta Magna through a constituent assembly. The proposal did not go down well, so now he is testing a less radical approach with similar objectives: a binding referendum.

Strike one. Struggling to pass reforms in Congress, President Petro started to think outside the box earlier this year, arguing that a deep reform of the system was needed because “institutions were incapable of carrying out social reforms people voted for.”

• The idea of a constitutional rewrite, however, was born dead. Not only did hostile opposition lawmakers reject it outright (some raising concerns that this might be the start of a turn towards Venezuela-like authoritarianism), but even some of his congressional allies saw it as a step too far that they wouldn’t stand with.

Strike two. Speaking to supporters last week, the left-wing leader floated a more conciliatory alternative, inviting Colombia’s traditional political groups to a “great national pact” to consult voters on key matters.

Why it matters. The referendum would focus on the tenets of Mr. Petro’s agenda, including changes to the country’s healthcare, labor, and pension systems, peace talks, land reform, adaptation to climate change, judicial reform, and more.

Truce. The leader said dialogue would be needed with “the country’s oligarchy, the establishment, the traditional political class, or however you want to call it” before his proposal could kick off. 

Reactions. While criticism from the right was to be expected, the president managed to garner support for his proposal from within his coalition this time.

• Senator Ariel Ávila said it should be up to the citizens to make these decisions, arguing that there is “no reason to turn this into a scandal,” citing previous referendums called by leaders of the right like former President Álvaro Uribe. 

Yes, but… The negative perception of Mr. Petro’s administration means any proposal of this kind is unlikely to pass the test of the ballots.

• Disapproval rates stood at 60 percent last month, and municipal elections in October also resulted in big losses in all mayor districts, as a poor economic performance has combined with corruption scandals to bring down initial hopes about his administration.

• Even left-leaning newspapers like El Espectador have opposed the initiative, saying a referendum campaign would divert administrative efforts from Colombians’ day-to-day struggles.

Smokescreen? Critics say the proposal is no more than a campaign strategy with the 2026 presidential elections in mind, looking to cement a narrative in which opposition obstructionism is standing between the populace and its desires for a better future. 

• In a recent interview, former centrist presidential candidate Sergio Fajardo accused Mr. Petro of “playing the victim with a series of improvised declarations and proposals” that have “not been thought out by his team or analyzed by specialists.”

• “President Petro wants to keep the spotlight on himself at all times. This is what was behind the constitutional assembly first and the referendum later. But none of them will prosper because they are unrealistic,” Mr. Fajardo argued. 

Quick catch-up

Although grateful for being removed from a list of countries that do not cooperate in efforts against terrorism, Cuba asked the U.S. to also be removed from a list of terrorism sponsors. 

Opposition candidate Edmundo Urrutia held his first campaign rally in Venezuela, pledging “national reconciliation” while surrounded by banned opposition leaders. 

 Chile’s economy grew at a 2.3 percent annual rate in Q1 2024, the biggest expansion since Q2 2022.

Local communities celebrated after a luxurious seaside real estate project tied to Ecuadorian First Lady Lavinia Valbonesi was suspended due to environmental concerns. 

After less than a month in charge, Peruvian Interior Minister Walter Ortiz resigned. He was facing investigations around the controversial dissolution of a special police task force.

Dubai-based United Mining Projects Corporation will launch a lithium project next year in Argentina, the world’s fourth-largest producer.

After intense discussions, Uruguayan lawmakers passed a bill authorizing the compulsory hospitalization of homeless people who present a risk to themselves or others. 

Over 250 members of Daniel Ortega’s administration in Nicaragua were sanctioned by Washington amid accusations of immigrant smuggling.

Former French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault defended a campaign calling on France to pay Haiti “compensation” for the horrors of colonization.

The post 🥊 Fighting Spain and migrants appeared first on The Brazilian Report.