🪑 More seats, more problems

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IN THIS ISSUE

• A push to expand Brazil’s lower house

• A new Amazon Atlas

• Brazil’s HDI goes up, but so do illiteracy levels

Lawmakers want to expand lower house in defiance of Supreme Court

Brazil’s lower house is set to decide whether to fast-track a controversial bill increasing the number of House seats from 513 to 527. The move not only risks ballooning public costs but also directly defies a Supreme Court order. 

Driving the news. The proposal is a workaround to a Supreme Court decision requiring Congress to redraw state benches based on the 2022 census. Justices say population shifts should trigger redistribution, meaning states that became more populous must gain seats, to the detriment of others.

State of play. Seven states stand to lose representation, including Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul — two of Brazil’s five richest states — while the faster-growing Santa Catarina and Pará would gain as many as four seats each.

• For the House, the solution is to add seats, not redistribute them — avoiding reducing the representation of any state.

👉 Why it matters. Each state’s number of seats in the House is tied to its population, from a minimum of eight (11 of Brazil’s 27 states) to a maximum of 70 (São Paulo, home to nearly one-quarter of the country’s population). Instead of giving proportionately more representation to the biggest states, the current arrangement has amplified the political weight of sparsely populated regions.

By the numbers. São Paulo has one seat for every 634,446 voters, while Roraima — the least populous state in the country — has one lawmaker for every 78,588.

Fiscal pressure. The push to grow Congress raises major fiscal concerns. Official estimates suggest that each House member costs taxpayers about BRL 230,000 (USD 40,440) per month in salary, allowances, housing, and staff budgets — meaning that 14 new lawmakers would mean an extra public cost of BRL 39.1 million each year. Experts warn the financial impact could cascade, as the size of state-level legislatures is constitutionally tied to the size of their federal representation.

Other risks. Adding to the friction, some lawmakers are calling for the 2022 census to be set aside altogether, citing alleged inconsistencies that they claim unfairly penalize certain states and municipalities. That suggestion risks a legal standoff, as the Supreme Court’s deadline requires Congress to approve the new seat distribution by June 30; or the Superior Electoral Court could step in to impose it.

• The friction would further strain the already tense relationship between Congress and the Supreme Court, which has been nearing breaking point for years. Lawmakers accuse justices of overreach and of attempting to legislate from the bench, while others argue the court is merely filling a vacuum left by a Congress unwilling to act.

What next. For now, congressional leaders hope to fast-track the bill directly to a floor vote as early as next week, but the final text is still being drafted.

Thought bubble. In short, the case underscores how Brazilian public officials often prioritize self-interest: the executive branch resists any notion of cost-cutting, the judiciary repeatedly grants itself increasingly generous benefits, and Congress shows little willingness to give up its own privileges.

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The Amazon hinges on more than just carbon markets

The Heinrich Böll Foundation in Brazil has just published the landmark “Brazilian Amazon Atlas,” offering a sweeping, locally written account of the world’s largest rainforest at a critical moment — just months before the United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) lands in Belém, the capital of the Amazonian state of Pará.

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