Jair Bolsonaro flies to the G20 Summit

Jair Bolsonaro flies to the G20

President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to fly to Osaka today, where he will attend the G20 Summit on Friday and Saturday. His schedule includes bilateral meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping (40 minutes), Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (20 minutes), and Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman—whom the UN considers culpable for the torture and assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last year.

Mr. Bolsonaro wrote an article for the book “G20 Japan: The 2019 Osaka Summit,” organized by University of Toronto professor John Kirton, in which he lists what he plans to address during his G20 debut. After lashing out at previous administrations, the president says he will focus on four issues: free trade, pension reform, fighting corruption, and lowering developed countries’ protectionism on agricultural goods.

The G20 Summit will be Mr. Bolsonaro’s chance to improve his image abroad, where he is seen with resistance by foreign leaders—especially on human rights and environmental issues. His first opportunity at a grand stage was a lackluster showing at the World Economic Forum in January. He was expected to deliver the keynote speech at the event—but his address lasted for only 6 minutes and brought nothing new. In Osaka, Mr. Bolsonaro will speak on innovation and technology.

Bolsonaro and Xi at the G20

Despite his track record of criticism on China, Mr. Bolsonaro has toned down his rhetoric and his administration has taken concrete action to strengthen ties with Beijing. Vice President Hamilton Mourão, who visited China last month, is credited with laying the foundation for better relations with Brazil’s top trading partner. Jair Bolsonaro has a visit to China planned for August, and Mr. Jinping should go to Brasília in November for a BRICS Summit.

• Go deeper: Paris Accord question looms over Brazil’s G20 participation

Supreme Court takes indigenous lands off landowners’ hands

One of Jair Bolsonaro’s most controversial cabinet decisions was giving the Agriculture Ministry (which is dominated by landowners) control over the demarcation of indigenous lands. That move, however, was temporarily suspended by Supreme Court Justice Luís Roberto Barroso. A final ruling will come only after the other 10 justices vote on the issue.

The change of control over indigenous lands had been signed off on by President Bolsonaro right after taking office—but was struck down by Congress. Afterwards, he issued a new provisional decree reaffirming the change—and that piece of legislation was the one suspended by Justice Barroso, who said the Constitution forbids the president from trying to overturn a congressional decision in this manner.

• Go deeper:Brazil’s biggest quilombo is using georeferencing to protect its land

F-1 becomes sparring match for 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro is keen on moving the Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix from São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro, which he said is a “99% probability.” The move puts him at odds with São Paulo Governor João Doria, who claims his state would lose about 10,000 jobs with the relocation—not to mention that it would make the privatization of the city’s Interlagos track unviable.

But the quarrel is less about jobs or racing, and all about 2022. Ever since Mr. Bolsonaro took office, opponents and even allies started to brand themselves as candidates for his succession—none more than Mr. Doria, who only managed a narrow victory in October 2018 thanks to a forced association of his name to Mr. Bolsonaro’s. With the president’s hesitation in supporting more liberal economic measures, Mr. Doria tries to position himself as an “establishment-friendly” version of Jair Bolsonaro.

Talking about the F-1 GP, the president poked fun at his perceived future adversary: “The press says he will run in 2022, so he has to think of the country as a whole.” Mr. Doria, who is heavily invested in building a future coalition four years prior to the election, but who never goes off-script, said that “the F-1 is an economic matter, not an electoral issue.”

Brazil breaks Petrobras’ monopoly over gas

The government has launched a plan to lower electricity and gas bills in the country. The plan includes giving private companies the right to explore unused parts of pipelines currently under Petrobras’ monopoly. Despite selling many networks, the state-owned company has retained the right to use them—which sustains a de facto monopoly.

State administrations will also be allowed to give up on their monopoly over mains gas networks—something in which Rio de Janeiro Governor Wilson Witzel has already demonstrated interest. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes claims the moves should push gas prices down 40%, and should boost the industry’s revenue by 8.46%.

But even if the government’s plan works, the effects are unlikely to be felt immediately. Price reductions should only begin in one or two years—after the plan is put into motion. Some experts have called the project too vague and not innovative enough to drag the country out of a persistent state of crisis.

• Go deeper:Petrobras major gas discovery may help to lower energy costs in Brazil

Also noteworthy

Iran. The rising U.S.-Iran tensions have taken a toll on Brazilian poultry exports. With less access to foreign exchange, the Iranian government has held back on purchases, which has halted new contracts. Between January and May, Iran was the destination of over USD 200m worth of poultry—8% of total exports of the product. Those selling grains to the Middle Eastern country are also beginning to worry.

GDP. The Brazilian government will, once again, reduce its official GDP growth projection, currently at 1.6%. The latest Focus Report, a weekly survey by the Central Bank with top-rated investment firms, showed a growing pessimism with the economy. For the 17th straight week, GDP growth forecast for 2019 was lowered from 2.6% (Jan.17) to 0.87% now.

Impeachment. Rio de Janeiro’s City Council will hold a vote today on the impeachment of Mayor Marcello Crivella. Once considered an afterthought, Mr. Crivella might just hold on to his office, as the investigation committee into the request said he should be acquitted of a corruption accusation. Without voter engagement, lawmakers are set to let things stay as they are, avoiding the need for a by-election just one year before the city goes to the polls in 2020.

Lula. The Supreme Court has postponed the trial that will rule on former President Lula’s request to vacate his conviction after claims he wasn’t given a fair trial. In the past few weeks, news website The Intercept started to publish leaked private messages between the case’s judge, Sergio Moro, and Operation Car Wash prosecutors—showing the former judge coached the prosecution in many stances, which is illegal. Lula’s defense team tries to motion for the case to be heard today.

Congress. President Jair Bolsonaro said he will veto a bill restricting his power to name the heads of the 11 federal regulatory agencies in Brazil. Instead of appointing whoever he wants, the president would have to pick from 3-name list approved by Congress. On Saturday, Mr. Bolsonaro criticized the bill, saying Congress wanted to transform him into a powerless “Queen of England.” Congress could hold a joint session to strike down the veto (it would take 257 votes among congressmen and 41 among senators).

Environment. In May 2011, Brazilians were shocked by images of an illegal hunting safari in the Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetland biome. Five people, including two foreigners, were prosecuted for environmental crimes, as well as the illegal use of weapons. But the Justice system now informs that 6 of the 11 crimes reached the statute of limitations without any punishment being delivered.

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