😓 Approval slip

Good morning! Legislators in São Paulo approved a statewide ban on smartphones in schools. The issue has become a hot topic of discussion among parents — and most people in Brazil favor such bans. In today’s issue: 

Between a rock and a hard budget

The Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva administration’s approval rating has dipped to 35 percent, according to a new MDA survey commissioned by the National Confederation of Transportation. It is the lowest point since he took office in 2023, highlighting a drop of seven percentage points since January and two points since the last survey in May.

Big picture. At the same points in his previous terms, Lula enjoyed much higher approval ratings of 45 and 71 percent, respectively. When compared to past governments, Lula’s approval only surpasses that of Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s second term and Michel Temer’s administration. 

• Mr. Cardoso’s popularity plummeted after abruptly ending Brazil’s dollar peg in 1999, allowing the real to float freely. The move, spurred by crises in Russia and Asia, caused the real to halve in value against the dollar, driving many businesses with dollar-denominated debts into bankruptcy. 

• Voters were especially angered that Mr. Cardoso had not mentioned the shift during his 1998 re-election campaign.

• Mr. Temer took office after his predecessor was ousted by a contentious impeachment process that divided the country and prevented him from becoming a popular leader.

Same demographics. Support remains strongest among women, those over 60, lower-income residents, people with less formal education, and Catholics in the Northeast. These cohorts, heavily reliant on distributive welfare policies, underscores the political risks Lula would face if he attempted policy cuts.

 Why it matters. Besides showing that Lula has continuously failed to make inroads among constituencies traditionally resistant to his charms, the poll underscores how little political incentive Lula has to carry out deep spending cuts.

Looking ahead. The MDA poll also asked voters about scenarios for the 2026 election. While they have limited predictive value due to how far removed we are from that election, it was notable that less-radical candidates had less appeal among conservative voters.

• Jair Bolsonaro, the former president who has yet to recognize his 2022 electoral defeat — and, according to the Federal Police, orchestrated a seditious conspiracy — remains Lula’s closest challenger. 

• Meanwhile, Pablo Marçal, the far-right wildcard who wreaked havoc in the recent São Paulo mayoral race, outperforms the less radical São Paulo governor, Tarcísio de Freitas. 

Amazon region lost 8 percent of open water in last year’s drought

A study published this morning in research journal Environmental Research Letters showed that the central region of Brazil’s Amazon lost a full 8 percent of its open water extent during the severe 2023-2024 dry season, specifically during the final two months of last year.

 Why it matters. The figure is alarming in itself, but brings further concern about open water loss during the current drought, with this year’s dry spell regarded as being even more severe than the last.

Findings. The study — carried out by researchers from the National Institute for Space Research in partnership with universities in Brazil, Uruguay, France, and Belgium — used remote sensing technology to analyze open water coverage in the Amazon from 2017 to September this year. The 8 percent loss at the end of 2023 was in relation to the average water extent for those months.

• This figure, however, was for the central Amazon region as a whole. Some bodies of water saw far more acute decreases — such as the Piorini Lake, located between the towns of Coari and Tefé, which saw open water extent fall by 80 percent.

• The researchers found below-average water levels for all months of 2024 so far, suggesting a potentially larger loss for the November/December period this year.

What they are saying. “Severe drought reduces access to food, education, medicine, transportation, and safe drinking water,” says Daniel Maciel, author of the study. “It can also cause a higher mortality rate of fish, the main animal protein source in the Amazon’s most remote communities.”

Importance. Thanks to its sheer size and predominance of forest cover, Brazil’s Amazon has few highways and relies on rivers for the vast majority of its transportation needs. When these waterways dry up, it makes it much harder for residents to access health and education services, and can cause supply shortages in more remote communities.

• We covered the 2023 drought extensively at The Brazilian Report, telling the stories of municipalities cut off from the rest of the country due to dried-up rivers, and the shocking mass deaths of dozens of the region’s iconic pink river dolphins.

Also related. Meanwhile, in the Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetlands, water surfaces diminished by 61 percent between 1985 and 2023, according to a new study by MapBiomas, a monitoring platform. This drop has ushered in longer drought seasons and shorter wet seasons, which in turn has made wildfires stronger and harder to control.

Homicide clearance rates worryingly low, despite bounceback

Despite a slight improvement, Brazil’s homicide clearance rate remains concerningly low, with only 39 percent of cases solved in 2022 according to a new report from public security NGO Instituto Sou da Paz. 

 Why it matters. “Punishment remains the exception rather than the rule, particularly for the gravest of crimes,” warns the NGO’s executive director, Carolina Ricardo. “It is paramount to redirect the efforts and resources of Brazil’s justice system toward strengthening investigations and solving crimes against life.”

Benchmark. In the U.S. (hardly a world reference), clearance hovers around 52 percent. In Germany, it tops 90 percent.

Topical issue. The capacity of Brazilian police to solve homicides has come to the forefront after the assassination of a police informant at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport. The crime, committed in broad daylight, was seen by experts as a brazen act of defiance by the Primeiro Comando da Capital (First Command of the Capital, or PCC), São Paulo’s most powerful crime syndicate, which is suspected of orchestrating the killing.

By the numbers. The report underscores a stark inconsistency: with almost 900,000 inmates, Brazil has the world’s third-largest prison population (behind the U.S. and China), yet only 12 percent are incarcerated for homicide, compared to 43 percent for property crimes and 30 percent for drug-related offenses.

Under- and overachievers. Brasília, the federal capital, leads the country with its 90 percent clearance rate, followed by Goiás at 86 percent. Both states exceed national averages significantly. 

• Bahia, in the Northeast, has the lowest rate, with only 15 percent of murders solved. The Southeast state of Rio de Janeiro — where members of drug gangs and urban paramilitary mafias (known as “militias”) often kill each other on the streets — lags at 25 percent.

Data-keeping. Nine states did not provide sufficient data for their homicide clearance rates to be analyzed. Moreover, the report flagged how incomplete demographic data on homicide victims is. Few states provided data on victims’ race, gender, or age, limiting insights into how lethal violence impacts different populations. Notably, Piauí was the only state with sufficient data on racial demographics, showing that 85 percent of homicide victims were multiracial.

Improvement. The report calls for a standardized national measure of homicide clearance and urges the Justice Ministry to formalize and enforce this methodology. Such a measure would help align state efforts and better track national progress, setting a foundation for more effective public safety policies.

Quick catch-up

The Supreme Court is set to start analyzing a case that could send former President Fernando Collor (1990-1992) to prison. Mr. Collor was convicted of corruption and money laundering last year and is appealing the verdict.  

Once again, Brazil is considered a country free of measles. According to the Pan-American Health Organization, it has been five years since the last record of community transmission in the country.

After a public consultation on online gambling, a Supreme Court justice said there is not enough regulation around betting platforms. Brazil’s top prosecution body, meanwhile, asked for the law authorizing these platforms to operate to be declared unconstitutional.

After five years trailing the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, the University of São Paulo reclaimed its position as the best-rated Latin American university,  according to Times Higher Education.

The Central Bank warned the government that deteriorating inflation expectations will keep interest rates higher for longer. Investors are growing sour as the government fails to commit to austerity measures. 

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