🪖 A plot to kill Lula

Good morning! The day started with a police operation against a criminal ring that reportedly wanted to kill President Lula and his vice president, Geraldo Alckmin. In today’s issue: 

Military officers planned to kill Lula

The Federal Police are carrying out an operation to arrest four military officers (active and retired) and at least one federal marshal accused of having plotted to assassinate President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. 

Elite squad. The group includes members of the Army’s special forces unit, nicknamed the “Black Kids” for their use of black balaclavas. They generally operate in counterterrorism and covert operations. 

• Evidence indicates that this elite squad participated in meetings to devise a strategy for a coup following the defeat of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro by Lula in the 2022 election.

• The group reportedly elaborated a plan to ambush Justice Moraes — a target of the far right for his role against disinformation. They also gathered intelligence on the names, routines, and weapons used by President Lula’s security detail.

• One of the investigation’s targets held a senior government position during the Bolsonaro administration. Two were reportedly working in the law-and-order operation in Rio de Janeiro for the G20 Summit.

• Some members of the Army’s special forces also took part in the far-right insurrection of January 8, 2023 — when thousands of radicals stormed and ransacked the buildings housing the Supreme Court, Congress, and the presidential offices in Brasília. 

 Why it matters. The investigation underscores the extent to which Brazil’s democracy came to the brink after the 2022 election. Moreover, it raises critical questions about the politicization of the Armed Forces and law enforcement agencies.

Trust. Such revelations could deepen divisions in a country already grappling with political polarization. Just last week, a man tried to stage a suicide bomb attack against the Supreme Court — which Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right movement has depicted as an institution trying to put Brazil under a dictatorship run by the elites.

What next. The investigation culminating in today’s operation stems from the cooperation of Army Lieutenant-Colonel Mauro Cid, Jair Bolsonaro’s former aide-de-camp — suggesting that it may not be long before investigators knock at the former president’s front door. He is already under investigation for inciting the January 8 riots and is not allowed to leave the country.

This is a developing story. We will bring updates as we have them.

G20 produces declaration defending Brazilian goals

The G20 Summit, which brought together leaders of the world’s leading economies in Rio de Janeiro, successfully produced a final declaration on Monday evening. While short on specifics, the declaration covered the issues Brazil prioritized during its presidency of the Group of 20: the fight against hunger and poverty, climate action, and the reform of global governance institutions.

• In many points, the declaration provided no detail beyond what had already been approved in previous G20 negotiation rounds. 

• Regarding climate finance, for instance, the text transfers responsibility to negotiations within the United Nations, saying it expects a “positive result” from COP29, currently taking place in Azerbaijan.

 Why it matters. The declaration is a win for Brazil. Given the global uncertainties created by Donald Trump’s election in the U.S. and Argentina’s resistance to the document’s wording (more below), there was a risk of ending the summit without any declaration at all.

Taxes. The document cites progressive taxation as “one of the key tools to reduce domestic inequalities.” The issue was the lynchpin of the Brazilian agenda in charge of the G20. “With full respect to tax sovereignty, we will seek to engage cooperatively to ensure that ultra-high-net-worth individuals are effectively taxed,” the declaration states.

• Despite negotiations during the year only producing broad goals with no specific timetable, Brazilian diplomats considered that the declaration did more than just mention the need to reform the global tax system. Leaders said they “look forward to continuing to discuss these issues in the G20 and other relevant forums.”

Wars. Regarding the war waged by Israel in Gaza and Lebanon, the declaration acknowledged “the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the escalation in Lebanon” but made no mention of the Israeli hostages still held by the militant group Hamas — which in October 2023 launched an attack on Israeli soil.

• The declaration also called for “constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace” to end the war in Ukraine — while not mentioning Russia at all.

• The language is very much in line with Brazil’s stance on these conflicts under the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Brazil has called Israel’s reaction to the Hamas attack an act of “revenge” that inflicts “collective punishment on the entire Palestinian people,” he said during this year’s UN General Assembly.

• Regarding Ukraine, Lula’s diplomats (alongside China’s) have proposed a peace plan that does not require Russia to withdraw troops from Ukraine. The Brazilian president has also been perceived as leaning pro-Russia.

Building bridges. Despite awkwardness during his meeting with Argentina’s Javier Milei, Lula had positive encounters with leaders from the other side of the aisle, such as Italy’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

What next? Lula will have other bilateral meetings this week, most notably with Xi Jinping on Wednesday in Brasília, during the Chinese president’s state visit to Brazil.

Milei comes around on G20 declaration

After years of verbal sparring, Lula and his Argentinian counterpart, Javier Milei, finally met at yesterday’s G20 summit — though neither was willing to smile for their picture.

 Why it matters. The meeting brought some surprises, however, as Argentina’s right-wing leader made efforts to build bridges with Brazil. This is contrary to what one would have expected, given Mr. Milei’s recent firing of his foreign minister for being too dovish on multilateral initiatives. 

Count me in. Argentina agreed to sign Lula’s much-touted anti-hunger alliance alongside 81 other countries, despite including language that Mr. Milei saw as too interventionist. The country was offered a more flexible way of joining the initiative, by emphasizing pro-market reforms as the best way to combat hunger.

What they are saying. “The Argentine Republic becomes a founding member of this alliance while claiming that free enterprise capitalism is not just the only possible system to end world poverty, but also the only morally desirable system to achieve this,” the country’s commitment letter said. 

Foot on the gas. Mr. Milei’s government also signed a bilateral deal to sell shale gas from its giant Vaca Muerta basin to Brazil, which is part of Argentina’s efforts to escape its economic crisis through increased energy and mining exports. 

Compromise. While the Argentine government tried to change some of the G20 declaration’s wording concerning environmental protections and redistributive policies, Mr. Milei’s office said on Monday that the country chose not to stand in the way of the declaration being signed and adopted.

Don’t overblow first lady’s Elon Musk f-bomb

On the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazilian First Lady Rosângela “Janja” da Silva gave her two cents on the need for social media regulation on Saturday, dropping an f-bomb on tech mogul Elon Musk in the mix.

She said, he said … When the first lady’s speech was interrupted by what appeared to be a foghorn, Janja quipped: “That must have been Elon Musk. I’m not afraid of you!” Before adding, in English, “f*** you, Elon Musk!” 

• Alongside a pair of laughing emoji, Mr. Musk responded through X, saying that Lula and the Brazilian left “will lose the next election.” Mr. Musk has maintained a friendly relationship with the far-right movement in Brazil and is idolized by many supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

• Lula, in turn, sought to extinguish the flames as quickly as possible. Later on Saturday, in another G20 event, the president said that the government “doesn’t have to offend anyone or insult anyone,” in a veiled reference to his wife’s faux pas.

 Why it matters. Even though multiple international outlets have reported Ms. Silva’s comments, diplomatic sources say the imbroglio will likely only have domestic repercussions.

Sugarloaf out of a molehill? Rubens Barbosa, a former Brazilian ambassador to the United Kingdom (1994-1999) and the United States (1999-2004), tells The Brazilian Report Ms. Silva’s faux pas had no effect in negotiations around the G20 declaration. He also doubts they will have any impact on Brazil-U.S. relations.

• Mr. Musk is set to co-lead the soon-to-be-created Department of Government Efficiency, which will be tasked with cutting government spending and red tape.

• Yes, but … Lula’s own comments endorsing Kamala Harris prior to the U.S. election may have had more of an impact on bilateral relations than the first lady’s words.

Janja. Rosângela da Silva, also known as Janja, entered the Brazilian political scene in 2019, when Lula was released from prison and announced his engagement to his girlfriend of just over two years. She has since been heavily involved in Lula’s political life, particularly in terms of his social media output.

• Beyond being a lightning rod for vitriol from the far right, Janja also faces opposition from within the government itself. 

• She is blamed for PR blunders (such as botching an announcement on cross-border purchase tariffs) and for what some say is her “oversized role” in the administration for an unelected figure and “attention-seeking behavior.”

Repercussions. Right-wing members of Congress submitted a request for the House to officially reprimand the first lady for her comments and asked the government to create “clear and strict” protocols for first ladies to follow from now on.

Thought bubble. The far right welcomed the gaffe, which allowed its base to shift discussions from a botched terrorist plot to bomb the Supreme Court last week (which all but eradicated any hopes for amnesty for those who took part in the riots of January 8, 2023 — including former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is investigated for inciting the insurrection).

• “Janja is more Bolsonarista than many of those who call themselves [his] allies,” quipped Carlos Bolsonaro, one of the former president’s politician sons.

Quick catch-up

Thomas Volmer, Netflix’s global head of content distribution policies, has disclosed that Brazil hosts over 1,000 of the company’s content delivery network servers. With approximately 15 million subscribers, Brazil ranks as Netflix’s second-largest market worldwide.

The Supreme Court unanimously confirmed an injunction ordering the government to adopt “special protective measures” to ensure that beneficiaries of welfare programs do not use their monthly stipends to gamble online.

The Finance Ministry’s gambling and lottery secretary said the list of betting companies authorized to operate in Brazil from next year onwards will be published in the last two weeks of December.

The post 🪖 A plot to kill Lula appeared first on The Brazilian Report.