🏳️ Amnesty talks

Good morning! Today, we talk about moves in the House to grant amnesty to the January 8 rioters and benefit Jair Bolsonaro. Belt and Road talks not for now, says Brazil’s vice president. And a warning for the Amazon and Pantanal biomes.

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Amnesty talks

Two bills aimed at going easy on suspects of criminal activity are being set into motion in Brazil’s lower house. One of them would grant amnesty to those who carried out an insurrection on January 8, 2023, while the other would limit plea bargains — which have become powerful instruments to pull investigative threads on criminal enterprises.

 Why it matters. Both would directly benefit far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro — who is investigated for inciting the January 8 riots and faces multiple other criminal cases that have advanced thanks to the statements of suspects collaborating with the Justice system.

Amnesty. A constitutional amendment proposal would grant amnesty to “all those who participated in demonstrations with a political and/or electoral motivation, or supported them, by any means, including contributions, donations, logistical support, or provision of services and publications on social media and platforms.”

• The draft makes little effort to hide its motivation to let the January 8 rioters off the hook, saying the amnesty would benefit potential wrongdoing carried out between October 30, 2022 (the day of Brazil’s runoff presidential election) and the day the law would come into effect.

• Congressman Rodrigo Valadares was designated as the amnesty bill’s rapporteur (who is responsible for the final draft of the bill). He is a staunch supporter of Jair Bolsonaro and has taken part in events with anti-democratic undertones.

• The January 8 riots were the most frontal attack on Brazil’s democratic institutions since democracy was restored in the mid-1980s.

Plea deals. Meanwhile, House Speaker Arthur Lira is moving to fast-track a bill to bar suspects under preventive detention from signing plea bargains. 

• The bill was proposed back in 2016 by a member of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party and was aimed at curtailing the plea deals signed under the scope of Operation Car Wash — a massive anti-corruption task force that targeted Lula by way of convincing suspects to turn state’s evidence. 

• At the time, the bill was presented as a way to prevent prosecutors from using preventive arrests to strong-arm suspects into spilling the beans.

• If passed, the bill could put into question the contents of the plea deal signed by Lieutenant-Colonel Mauro Cid, Mr. Bolsonaro’s former aide-de-camp, who has told investigators about multiple criminal enterprises that benefited or were headed by Mr. Bolsonaro. 

• They include a plot to stage a coup d’état, a scheme to smuggle jewelry, and a move to forge fake vaccination records.

Full circle. Leftist lawmakers complained about Mr. Lira’s maneuver and scoffed: “You were in favor of this … Now you’re against it?”

No Belt and Road for now: Alckmin

During his visit to China, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said Brazil’s inclusion in China’s Belt and Road Initiative is under discussion but will not be formalized now. During the weekend, the government’s House whip had said Mr. Alckmin’s visit would mark Brazil’s entry into the initiative to foster infrastructure investment, as a way of marking the 50th anniversary of Brazil-China bilateral relations. 

 Why it matters. Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to visit Brazil later this year for the G20 Summit and will visit President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. If Brazil’s inclusion in the Belt and Road is to happen, the two heads of state could announce it then.

Meanwhile … Brazil and China have signed a number of agreements in various fields, including but not limited to policymaking for small businesses, agriculture, space ventures, and lifting visa requirements for some citizens.

Coffee. Brazil signed an agreement to boost its coffee exports to the Asian giant by an extra USD 500 million yearly. Luckin Coffee, the country’s largest chain, will purchase 120,000 tons of Brazilian coffee.

• Chinese coffee consumption is growing quickly, and this rising demand is a golden opportunity for the Brazilian coffee industry. The country is the world’s biggest exporter, having shipped over USD 7.3 billion worth of the product in 2023, according to Statista.

Vaccines. China’s Sinovac will invest USD 100 million to develop vaccines, cellular therapies, and other treatments in Brazil — in partnership with the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, a Brazilian federal biological institute.

Environment. Huawei will use artificial intelligence to monitor crabs on Marajó Island in the northern Brazilian state of Pará. The project will monitor the impact of climate change on wildlife in the Amazon. The Chinese giant will monitor the birth and mortality rates, among other indicators, of crabs located in the Soure Marine Extractive Reserve.

Securities. The two countries also signed an addendum to a previous memorandum of understanding, which will expand possibilities for mutual assistance and information exchange, and deepen regulatory cooperation in financial and capital markets.

Drought warnings for the Amazon and the Pantanal 

The federal government warned on Wednesday about an upcoming drought which will severely affect two massively important biomes: the Amazon rainforest and the Pantanal wetlands.

 Why it matters. According to Environment Minister Marina Silva, massive wildfires are expected in both biomes during the dry season, which runs through September. 

• To avoid the worst, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed a pact with the governors of states where these biomes are located to prevent wildfires. The government wants to mitigate the impact of these events on people, such as the risk of supply shortages.

• Both the Pantanal and the Amazon have endured massive droughts in recent years, made more intense by climate change.

Pantanal. In 2020, roughly 23 percent of the Pantanal (the world’s largest tropical wetland) was destroyed by massive wildfires. The biome is also a massive hub for biodiversity, being home to at least 130 species of mammals, 80 reptiles, 460 birds, 30 amphibians, and 260 different types of fish.

• Among the region’s most famous animals, jaguars — along with tapirs, deer, alligators, toucans, jabirus, snakes, and macaws — suffered from the effects of the widespread fires.

• A month ago, the National Water Agency declared a state of critical water shortage in the Paraguay River Basin, in which the Pantanal lies. In some areas, river levels are at a six-decade low.

• The Paraguay Basin covers 48 percent of the state of Mato Grosso, and 52 percent of Mato Grosso do Sul. In total, Paraguay’s hydrographic network occupies around 4.3 percent of the Brazilian territory.

Amazon. Last year, the Amazon faced its worst drought in history. Some river levels dropped far below those of the same period in 2010, the previous record low. Without functional rivers, entire cities in Amazonas state were cut off from the rest of Brazil and suffered from shortages. Moreover, the shipment of goods manufactured in the Manaus Duty Free Zone was disrupted by non-navigable rivers.

Zoom out. Climate change is putting several biomes through continuous stress tests, and many are losing their resilience. Experts warn that biomes crucial to rainfall patterns in South America as a whole could turn into savannas.

Quick catch-up

The Senate overwhelmingly approved a 20 percent tax on cross-border purchases below USD 50. The tax is supported by the Finance Ministry (as it will increase revenue) and domestic retailers (who complain of unfair competition from Asian marketplaces). But the ubiquity of these purchases means there is a political cost to introducing such a tax.

House Speaker Arthur Lira chose 20 lawmakers to form a working group to draft regulations for social media platforms. Two of them are accused of spreading disinformation online.

The rate of workers earning up to the minimum wage has dropped from 35.5 to 31.7 percent between 2022 and 2024, a recent study found. Higher education levels among workers and a steady job market are behind the increase in income.

The São Paulo-Guarulhos Airport, Brazil’s busiest, had a request to increase its number of flights denied due to security flaws. Regulators flagged issues with operations at nighttime and when it rains.

Prosecutors accused the owners of Prevent Senior, a health insurance provider focused on senior citizens, of endangering patients during the pandemic. The company encouraged ineffective treatments against the coronavirus that were being touted by former President Jair Bolsonaro.

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