👊 Political hooliganism works

In Monday’s newsletter, we explained that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s sudden flirtation with a presidential run was never about 2026. It was a bargaining tactic — a bid to deploy the political weight of Bolsonarism toward the movement’s overriding priority: securing amnesty for former President Jair Bolsonaro, who has only just begun serving his 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn the 2022 election.

In a matter of days, the “Big Center” — a constellation of ideologically malleable parties that together control the largest voting bloc in Brazil’s legislature — capitulated. The House approved a bill that would significantly reduce the prison terms for Bolsonaro and others convicted of crimes against democracy committed after the 2022 election.

The path to that vote, however, plunged the House into rare turmoil. Speaker Hugo Motta oversaw a raucous process that included shutting down the chamber’s official TV and internet broadcast, kicking journalists out of the press gallery, and ordering the forced removal of a congressman who had occupied the speaker’s chair. Disorder is hardly novel in Brasília, but even by its low standards, Tuesday stood out…

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