2026 ELECTION
Lula’s re-election bid is gaining strength in Congress
In June, most lawmakers believed Lula would lose in 2026. That trend has reversed. Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/PR
Despite recent conflicts with congressional leaders, some political winds appear to be shifting in President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s favor. The latest Quaest survey of federal lawmakers shows a meaningful improvement in how members of Congress view both the government and Lula’s chances of winning re-election in 2026.
According to the survey, 43% of federal lawmakers make Lula the favorite for the 2026 presidential race, up from 35% in June. Another 42% expect an opposition candidate to prevail, down from 50%. At the same time, congressional approval of the administration has recovered from a low point earlier this year: the share of those rating the government negatively reduced from 46% to 40%, while positive opinions rose from 27% to 38%.
Among self-declared independents…
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