🦟 Worst-case scenario

Good morning! Today, the state of the dengue emergency. Vale’s proposal to victims of the Mariana dam collapse. And an app to learn an indigenous language.

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• Attention: Tomorrow, May 1, is Labor Day in Brazil — a national holiday. You will receive the Latin America Weekly newsletter, but Brazil Daily will only return on Thursday.

Dengue emergency reaches worst-case scenario

The enormous dengue outbreak that has troubled Brazil in 2024 continues to reach new milestones. On Monday, the government reported that the number of confirmed cases had topped the mark of 4.1 million. The total dengue infections for a calendar year is already the highest ever, but the record gets bigger and bigger.

• The dengue fever death toll in 2024 is inching closer to 2,000 people, which is also a record.

 Why it matters. Earlier this year, the government laid out its dengue epidemic forecasts. Its worst-case scenario saw the number of infections reach 4.2 million. We’re not even in May, and that mark is within shouting distance.

State of play. According to data from the Pan American Health Organization, Brazil is home to three-quarters of all dengue cases recorded in Latin America. In February, Brazil started to roll out dengue vaccines, but demand has been scarce. By March, only 14.5 percent of the target populations — children and adolescents aged under 14 — had been immunized.

• In São Paulo, all 96 neighborhoods are under an emergency situation. 

• The effects of climate change and the El Niño weather phenomenon — as well as the low adoption of measures to eliminate mosquito breeding sites (the Aedes aegypti mosquito reproduces on standing water), have intensified the outbreak.

• These factors are behind the recent expansion of the dengue fever transmission area towards the country’s south and center.

Meanwhile … Cases of Zika and chikungunya, which are also transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, are on the rise as well. A Zika outbreak would be particularly worrisome given the disease’s association with birth defects, notably microcephaly, when babies are born with smaller heads than expected.

• Fears of microcephaly dominated headlines in the Brazilian press around 2015 and 2016, when the country experienced a Zika virus epidemic. The trauma caused by the Zika epidemic led authorities in 2021 to advise women to postpone their pregnancy plans to avoid potential complications caused by Covid.

Impact. While dengue’s mortality rate is small, the impact of the disease epidemic on the economy could reach BRL 4.4 billion (USD 889 million) in productivity losses in 2024, according to an estimate released last week by the Federation of Industries of Minas Gerais (Fiemg).

Bad omen. The estimate was based on the premise that Brazil would reach 4.2 million infections by the end of the year, which now seems a conservative assumption.

You should also read:

• Surge in dengue cases leaves Brazilian health officials rattled

• Dengue epidemic could have significant impact on Brazil’s economy

• Brazil records Covid spike, and coronavirus still kills plenty

Vale makes settlement proposal

In a securities filing, mining giant Vale said it had made a new proposal to settle legal disputes over the consequences of the 2015 Mariana dam disaster — when an iron ore tailings dam burst, releasing the equivalent of 25,000 Olympic swimming pools of toxic sludge, destroying entire towns, and killing 19 people. The mine was owned by Samarco, a joint venture between Vale and BHP.

• The relatively low death toll was nothing short of miraculous given the sheer scale of the disaster. 

• The dam collapse also devastated the Rio Doce, a major river in the region. Thousands of animals were killed and experts at the time estimated that it would take decades to repair the catastrophic damage.

 Why it matters. Vale wants to pay BRL 127 billion (USD 24.8 billion) in compensation to the victims of the tragedy and to federal, state, and municipal governments.

In their words. “Reparation is a priority for Samarco, Vale, and BHP; and, as of March 2024, around BRL 37 billion has been spent on remediation and compensation, including approximately BRL 17 billion paid to over 430,000 people,” Vale’s executive vice president for finance and investor relations, Gustavo Pimenta, said in a statement.

• In January, a Brazilian court ruled that Vale, BHP, and Samarco had to pay BRL 47.6 billion in damages for the dam burst. The judge in the case said the amount would need to be adjusted for inflation and interest for late payment.

• Besides in Brazil, the 2015 Samarco disaster is being litigated in British courts.

Why it matters. Accountability for one of the world’s worst mining disasters remains elusive. Delays in the case have already allowed charges for two environmental crimes to reach the statute of limitations.

Lesser charges. In 2016, federal prosecutors filed aggravated homicide charges against 21 people, but a federal court dropped them after finding that the 19 deaths were caused by flooding.

Liability. In 2018, The Brazilian Report published the account of a consulting firm, stating that the tragedy could have been avoided if Samarco had spent just USD 1.5 million on safety measures.

• In 2009, the company refused to implement an emergency plan to monitor the safety of the dam that eventually collapsed. The USD 1.5 million would have been used to install a telemetry system to identify structural risks and allow the company to develop a contingency plan to rescue neighboring communities in the event of an accident.

• But Samarco’s board decided not to implement the plan for two main reasons: it was too expensive, and far more complex than what was required by Brazilian law.

You should also read:

• The Mariana tragedy could have been avoided with USD 1.5 million

• Podcast: Will justice be served for Mariana?

An app to learn “general language” of Brazil’s indigenous peoples

An app launched in 2021 by a researcher and IT developer is helping people learn Nheengatu, a Brazilian indigenous language. Images, audio, and tests with word and phrase selection help to assimilate the language. Access is free and can be done on any browser and various mobile devices.

 Why it matters. Brazil has 274 spoken indigenous languages, many of which face the risk of disappearing due to a lack of speakers. Across South America, 226 languages are currently in danger of dying out, according to data from the Endangered Languages Project.

State of play. Elderly members of indigenous communities are the guardians of native languages, but in recent times they have been unable to transmit this knowledge to younger generations.

Context. Though Portuguese is Brazil’s official language and is widely spoken by nearly the entire population, this was by no means always the case. The language of the Portuguese colonizers was only established as the colony’s official tongue in 1758 — over 250 years after the first settlers had arrived on our shores.

• Until the 18th century, the most widely spoken language in Brazil was actually indigenous. The “general language,” or Nheengatu, was a supra-ethnic language of the Tupi-Guarani family and was at one point spoken by European colonizers, African slaves, and indigenous communities alike.

• There were two variations of this general language during Colonial Brazil: one from the Amazon, and one from São Paulo. The latter disappeared during the 18th century – but not without leaving a profound mark on the Portuguese language spoken throughout the colony. 

• Meanwhile, the Amazonian general language remained the most widely spoken language in northern Brazil until the rubber boom in the late 19th century.

U-turn. Between the 16th and the 18th century, Jesuit missionaries and Portuguese settlers staged a dispute over the control of indigenous populations. At first, the Jesuits fared better as they spoke Nheengatu. Over time, though, the Portuguese realized that learning the local general language would give them the upper hand.

• The Portuguese Crown itself began encouraging the spread of the general language. In 1689, it decided that the Jesuits would teach Nheengatu not only to indigenous peoples, but also to the children of the settlers.

• With time, however, the predominance of Nheengatu came to be seen as a nuisance. Representatives of the crown in the colony were forced to rely on translators, which created hurdles for managing their territories. 

• To make matters worse, the general language was linked to the Jesuits, and their relationship with the Portuguese Crown began to sour. In 1759, missionaries were expelled from the colonies. 

• The straw that broke the camel’s back was a revolt made by poor people in the northern state of Pará in 1835, facilitated by the use of Nheengatu among conspirators. The use of any branch of the Tupi-Guarani language family was strictly forbidden after that.

Resistance. For many in the Amazon, to speak Nheengatu is an act of resistance. In 2022, intellectuals created the Nheengatu Academy of Letters. Last year, the Supreme Court translated the Constitution into Nheengatu.

You should also read:

• Is Brazilian Portuguese a language of its own?

Quick catch-up

Bernard Appy, the government’s tax reform secretary, says the reform’s changes to the Brazilian consumption tax system will eliminate tax benefits that amount to 2 percent of GDP.

The Federal Police subpoenaed Communications Minister Juscelino Filho, who is suspected of having misused congressional budgetary earmarks during his time in the House. His deposition was scheduled for May 10. Mr. Filho denies any wrongdoing.

Former footballer Ronaldo sold his 90 percent stake at Cruzeiro, the Belo Horizonte club where he began his professional career. The deal was reportedly worth BRL 600 billion, 50 percent more than what Ronaldo paid for his share in December 2021.

As the first major maturity point for debt taken by soybean producers nears, Santander renegotiates with farmers and rolls over debts for up to three years. The bank understands that farmers who dealt with production losses wouldn’t be able to afford their liabilities with the results of the next harvest alone.

Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil major, recorded a 3.7 percent yearly growth in output during Q1. However, the sale of oil derivatives dropped 4.9 percent.

The post 🦟 Worst-case scenario appeared first on The Brazilian Report.