BUSINESS RISK
How Trump’s Venezuela operation rattles companies in Brazil and Latin America
President Donald Trump on Jan. 6. Photo: Daniel Torok/White House
The US military operation in Venezuela on Saturday to capture authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro sent shockwaves throughout Latin America. While the ramifications of the weekend’s events are still being assessed amid a high degree of uncertainty, analysts agree that 2026 will not be business as usual for the region.
In its annual top risks report, US-based consultancy Eurasia ranked the US under President Donald Trump as the world’s number one source of political risk this year. Listed in third was Washington’s aggressive reinterpretation of the Monroe Doctrine and its attempt to exert control in the Americas through “a mix of military pressure, economic coercion, selective alliance-building and Trump’s personal score-settling.”
As explained by Thiago Vidal, director at Brazilian political consultancy firm Prospectiva, in the most recent episode of The Brazilian Report’s Explaining Brazil Podcast, companies may no longer see South America as a “safe haven” from geopolitical risks, when compared to other regions.
“It is true that we have many problems. We have inequality, poverty and high criminality rates. However, we are not as unstable as some other regions,” he said. “After what we saw in Venezuela, that’s obviously no longer the case. The region will be assessed by different lenses.”
Exactly what will fall into that lens will be a constant source of monitoring for businesses in the region. But for Brazil, some elements are already coming to the forefront…
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