🙏 Religious revolution

Good morning! After US President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, Brazil’s Institutional Relations Minister Alexandre Padilha told a meeting of mayors in Brasília that the country will “not enter into any trade war,” saying that such disputes are “no good for anyone.” Trump’s steel tariffs take effect on March 12.

Brazil’s evangelical boom is reshaping the country’s electoral math

Brazil is undergoing its most significant (and fastest) religious transformation in centuries, with evangelical Christians projected to become the country’s largest religious group by 2032.

👉 Why it matters. The boom of evangelical Christians in Brazil is not just changing the country’s spiritual landscape — it is also fundamentally altering its political DNA, with a recent study suggesting that born-again Protestants could determine the outcome of the 2026 presidential election.

By the numbers. Evangelical Christians are projected to reach almost 40% of the population by 2032 — up from about 15% at the beginning of the century. A decade and a half ago, only five of Brazil’s 27 states had evangelical populations of over 30% — that number is expected to jump to 20 states by next year.

The big picture. This seismic shift is already visible in current politics. According to a study by Mar Asset Management, left-wing parties such as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party (PT) received a smaller share of votes in municipalities with higher concentrations of evangelical Christian voters in recent electoral cycles.

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