🚒 Pyromaniac firefighters

Hello, and welcome to the Latin America Weekly newsletter! In this issue: Two firefighters set a forest in Chile on fire for overtime pay. Legal progress is not enough for trans rights across the region. And why the economy makes Claudia Sheinbaum the favorite in Mexico.

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Two firemen arrested for igniting fires that killed 137 in Chile

The mystery around the devastating fires that killed 137, injured hundreds, displaced thousands, and burned more than 40,000 hectares of forest in Chile’s central region took a macabre turn this week, as authorities now believe that two men hired to protect society from such disasters were actually the ones who caused it — and all for just a modest personal gain. 

The suspect. The scandal erupted last Friday, when Chilean police arrested 22-year-old firefighter Francisco Mondaca after four months of sifting through video evidence from the day of the disaster.

• Investigators believe that Mr. Mondaca traveled through the region by car, placing homemade incendiary devices in multiple locations across the forest, ultimately leading to the burning of large parts of Valparaíso and other neighboring regions. 

The smoking gun. Officials who raided his home found multiple cigarettes wrapped in matchsticks, a simple but well-known artifact that can provoke large fires when the tip of the cigarette is consumed and the matches get lit.

The mastermind. Questioned by authorities, Mr. Mondaca said he did not act alone but followed orders from Franco Pinto, a long-time member of Chile’s National Forestry Corporation (CONAF), the entity tasked with managing national parks and combatting forest fires, who was arrested shortly after.

• Mr. Pinto, who called himself “lord of the fire” in a series of puzzling social media messages, allegedly taught Mr. Mondaca how and when to use the incendiary devices in order to maximize the damage and escape on time.

• “I met Franco Pinto a couple of days before [the fires], and he told me February 2 would be good due to weather conditions such as heat and winds. He told me the Lago Peñuelas reserve would be a good sector (to start them) as it was full of dry pastures,” Mr. Mondaca said.

Motive. The main suspect added that Mr. Pinto’s ultimate goal was to increase overtime hours paid to fight fires, looking to supplement his regular earnings. Mr. Pinto made an extra CLP 420,000 (USD 466) in February, the month of the fires, although his lawyers say Mr. Mondaca might have implicated him falsely in exchange for a reduced sentence.

Why it matters. Forest fires have become increasingly common in Chile, contributing to growing deforestation. Many cases were considered intentional, but investigators have generally struggled to prove it or find the authors. Now, the biggest tragedy of this kind seems to have been solved, potentially leading to a better understanding of similar cases. 

Reactions. “We all knew this was an intentional attack. Now, we can have a degree of certainty,” Viña del Mar Mayor Macarena Ripamonti said. The fact that fire sources were equidistant from each other led investigators to believe this was a planned attack.

• President Gabriel Boric’s spokeswoman Camila Vallejo praised investigators and called for the “maximum penalties that our legal system allows for.”

What next. Ms. Vallejo also called for an audit of the organizations involved in the fire, though CONAF officials played down the incident as an “isolated criminal case.” 

• Valparaíso’s fire department said the news had caused massive consternation among firefighting peers, and also announced an internal investigation to understand the case in full.

Mexico’s overheated economy helps Sheinbaum’s already-stacked presidential odds

Claudia Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate for Mexico’s ruling party Morena, maintains a commanding lead ahead of the June 2 presidential election. Nearly every poll predicts that she will be formally anointed as President Andrés Manuel “AMLO” López Obrador’s heiress this weekend.

It’s the economy, stupid. While headlines about Mexico focus on the very real issues of violence and corruption, the ruling left-wing Morena party has advantages on its side as well. The most notable of them being the economy, as Mexicans have enjoyed low unemployment and increased purchasing power during its first six years in charge.

Cash inflows. Money has been flowing into Mexico for multiple reasons, with record international remittances leading to the so-called superpeso. Optimism around nearshoring pledges has also inflated the value of financial assets. 

FDI. Analysts believe that nearshoring investment could unlock stronger GDP growth for the second-largest Latin American economy, and this prediction is already partially materializing, as Mexico received a record USD 20.3 billion in foreign direct investment in Q1 2024, 9 percent above the USD 18.6 billion seen in Q1 2023 — half of it coming from the U.S. 

• Mexico recently became the top U.S. trading partner, overtaking China, as trade protectionism grows between the world’s two largest superpowers. 

Jobs, jobs, jobs. Mexico also boasts the lowest unemployment figures in the continent,  sitting at just 2.7 percent in Q1 and even outperforming the U.S.’s 3.9 percent. Ample cash transfers have also lifted AMLO’s popularity among those of lower means. 

Boasting. The president has not let the opportunity to boast about these figures pass him by, saying that “the peso is the currency that has strengthened the most in the world relative to the dollar. Poverty and inequality are decreasing. With facts, we are demonstrating that the Moral Economy is better than neoliberalism.”

Yes, but … The economy is showing signs of losing steam. Recent quarters already indicate a slower pace of expansion, with GDP forecasted to grow by just 2.4 percent this year, the lowest since the pandemic.

• When all is said and done, Mexico will have likely eked out a mere 1 percent growth average during AMLO’s tenure in office.

Dark clouds. Rating agencies have flagged Mexico’s ballooning deficit as a cause for concern, while analysts criticize the increased role of the state in the economy. The government expects a primary deficit of 1.4 percent of GDP this year (up from zero in 2023) and a 5.9 percent total deficit, rising from 4.3 percent the year before.

• According to Capital Economics analyst Kimberley Sperrfechter, the Mexican economy “gathered a bit of momentum over the course of Q1, and that could cause Ms. Sheinbaum’s lead to increase further.”

• But “the government’s pre-election spending spree means the next administration will have its work cut out to put the country’s public finances back onto stable footing.”

Violence and discrimination persist despite leaps in trans rights

Latin America has made significant reforms when it comes to transgender rights over the last 15 years, although this has not been enough to shield this minority group from danger, as they continue to suffer from violence and discrimination across the continent. 

Legal rights. As of 2024, eight South American countries have reformed their legislation or seen judicial rulings that authorize any individual to legally change their name and gender, with no sex reassignment surgery or hormonal treatment required. 

• Uruguay was the pioneer in this regard in 2009, followed by similar reforms in Argentina (2012) and Ecuador (2013). Today, only Paraguay and Venezuela have not authorized gender self-identification. 

• This is a stark contrast to other continents, with the obvious exception of Europe. Most countries in Africa do not authorize legal identity changes, while in Asia, many demand medical treatment as a prerequisite.

Not enough. But while these reforms have been welcomed by the trans community, the situation on the ground is much more worrying.

• According to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), nearly 75 percent of transgenders in the region “do not manage to complete their secondary education.” 

• This creates a snowball of socioeconomic vulnerability due to lacking opportunities, exposing them to “unprotected or unhealthy environments,” disturbing their right to work, and subjecting them to higher poverty levels.

Sex work. As of 2021, nearly 80 percent of Latin America’s transgender population had to resort to sex work as their “only means of survival,” according to the Redlactrans network, which groups transgender organizations across the continent. To make things worse, sex work ends up happening in “hostile contexts of persecution, harassment, and institutional violence.”

• Other studies from international institutions show that sex work exposes these workers to sexually transmitted diseases such as HIV, as well as to the stigma that has historically been attached to prostitution. 

Stigma. A fresh example of stigmatization came recently from Peru, where the Health Ministry issued a decree describing transsexuals and transvestites as “mentally ill,” leading to widespread repudiation among LGBT+ and human rights organizations. 

Blunder. Government authorities argued that the decision did not come from ill intent, as the goal was to secure comprehensive health coverage for the trans community, adding new procedures to the list covered by Peru’s Essential Health Insurance Plan.  

• In a press release published after the scandal, the Health Ministry said, “sexual orientation and sexual identity does not constitute a disorder per se, and thus should not be medically treated,” adding that it opposed any kind of stigmatization and rejected the idea of conversion therapy for sexual minorities. 

• LGBT+ groups remarked that the decree came on the eve of the International Day Against Homophobia, Biphobia, and Transphobia, which celebrates the day when homosexuality was removed from the World Health Organization’s list of diseases back in 1990.

Why it matters. According to Brazil’s LGBTI+ National Alliance President Toni Reis, the issue is especially sensitive due to “the rise of far-right groups and the increasing religious fundamentalism” seen across Latin America, which has resulted in multiple real-life attacks. 

• The expert, whose organization tracks impediments for minority groups from Mexico to Uruguay, called the Peruvian case a “setback,” arguing that “there is much room for legal improvement without stigmatization. One should have access to medical care and other rights without being discriminated against for being who they are.”

Quick catch up

Prosecutors formally charged Colombia’s former two-term president Álvaro Uribe in an investigation on bribery and witness tampering.

Argentina’s Javier Milei oversaw his first significant cabinet change, replacing Cabinet Chief Nicolás Posse with the more experienced Guillermo Francos, his former interior minister.

Third-placed Mexican candidate Jorge Álvarez Maynez suspended his campaign after a stage fell on the crowd during a rally, killing nine. 

After severing ties with Israel and condemning attacks in Gaza, Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced the opening of an embassy in the Palestinian city of Ramallah.

At least five unvaccinated people died due to an Influenza A virus surge in Chile’s Ñuble region, putting residents and local health officials on alert.

One month before Uruguay’s presidential primaries, the chairman of the ruling National Party resigned on suspicion of protecting an ally accused of sexually abusing minors. 

The Bolivian government accused former left-wing president Evo Morales, once an ally of incumbent Luis Arce, of promoting roadblocks in concert with right-wing groups.

Hundreds of wild animals were found dead in Mexico due to a severe heat wave, as environmentalists report a “synergy” of factors contributing to the case. 

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s regime seized the house of his own brother, retired general Humberto Ortega, who became his political rival in the 1990s.

 Doubts about Kenya’s police mission in Haiti grew after the Kenyan president announced a three-week delay following a meeting with U.S. counterpart Joe Biden.

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