São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas has built much of his political profile on ambiguity. A former Bolsonaro cabinet minister who cultivates the support of markets and business elites, he has tried to maintain ties to the Bolsonarista camp while also cautiously positioning himself toward a post-Bolsonaro future. But that strategy appears to be unraveling.
Earlier this week, citing scheduling conflicts, Freitas abruptly canceled a visit to former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently imprisoned and dealing with recurring health problems. During that visit, Bolsonaro was expected to demand a clear, unequivocal endorsement of his eldest son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, as the conservative standard-bearer in the 2026 presidential race. By staying away, Freitas avoided being forced out of his strategic ambiguity.
His decision, however, came at a cost. Within Bolsonarism, the cancellation was interpreted as disrespectful — and triggered a response from Flávio Bolsonaro. The senator appointed Rogério Marinho, the opposition whip in the Senate and a former regional development minister under Jair Bolsonaro, to be his campaign coordinator.
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