🤸 Mission: Impossible?

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Good morning! Members of Congress will only begin to analyze Brazil’s 2025 budget proposal today, penciling in their final vote for Mar. 19. The lack of an approved budget creates all sorts of issues for the functioning of government, heavily restricting spending permissions.

Lula’s new coalition builder faces an uphill battle

Gleisi Hoffmann, a longtime ally of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has taken on one of the most politically delicate roles in his administration: serving as the government’s new institutional relations secretary, a key liaison with Congress.

Uphill battle. Her task is daunting. Hoffmann must repair the government’s frayed ties with lawmakers — a challenge that her predecessor Alexandre Padilha (now health minister) failed to overcome — while also laying the groundwork for alliances ahead of the 2026 elections.

One foot out? Lula’s recent drop in approval ratings, an increasingly uncertain global economy and slowing growth at home have put the governing coalition in a precarious position. The “Big Center,” an influential bloc of ideologically flexible parties, is increasingly ambivalent in its support for the president. Many of its power brokers, sensing that Lula’s re-election is no longer the certainty it once seemed, are keeping their options open.

• Several parties within the bloc are angling for greater influence, but few are willing to commit to a long-term alliance in exchange for cabinet positions. Some, such as the right-wing União Brasil party, have withheld support even on key congressional votes.

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