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💸 Give a little, tax a little
Haddad and Congress agree on an alternative to revise a controversial tax hike. The long-awaited 2022 census data on religion in Brazil. And the strings attached to an important auction at the Port of Santos.
Gustavo Ribeiro & Letícia Arcoverde
June 09, 2025
TAXES
Government yields on tax decree controversy
After several days of tension with Congress, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad brokered an agreement to revise a controversial tax decree, averting a full-scale legislative repeal that would have gutted the government’s fiscal plans. The result is a partial victory for the Lula administration, but one that fails to address fiscal issues in a more significant way.
The dispute centered on a decree that hiked Brazil’s financial transactions tax (IOF). Announced a couple of weeks ago, it sparked immediate backlash from lawmakers and markets. Under pressure, Congress threatened to strike down the decree entirely — a scenario that would have cost the government more than BRL 50 billion in projected revenue through 2026.
👉 Why it matters. The IOF is applied to the purchase of foreign currency in Brazil and functions as a quiet constraint on capital outflow. Though the government insists this was not the measure’s primary intention, critics argue that such barriers, however incidental, inject a note of caution among investors, who may hesitate to bring money into the country at all.
In order to preserve some of the new revenue the administration had created for itself, Haddad unveiled a compromise package on Sunday night. The deal with congressional leaders includes a steeper tax on online betting platforms, a 5% income tax on previously exempt real estate and agribusiness credit instruments (LCIs and LCAs), and the elimination of preferential tax treatment for certain fintechs.
Still, the revised package will yield only one-third of the revenue initially forecast by the original decree. “We are recalibrating in a way that preserves the spirit of the fiscal adjustment, even if the numbers are smaller,” Haddad told reporters. “The alternative would be to lose everything.” The revised IOF decree, expected to be reissued this week, includes the following changes:
Reduction of the IOF rate on corporate credit operations;
80% cut in the IOF rate on forfaiting,1 a type of supplier financing, which the government’s recent decree treats as a credit operation;
Lower IOF rates on individual retirement plans (VGBL);
IOF exemption for the repatriation of foreign direct investment;
Minimum tax applied to receivables investment funds (FDICs).
The government also pledged to introduce a supplementary bill targeting a 10% cut in tax exemptions not protected by the Constitution — a move intended to reduce Brazil’s ballooning stock of tax expenditures, which reached 4.5% of GDP last year. However, details remain vague, and the cuts must navigate a gauntlet of entrenched lobbying interests.
Economists had hoped the government would use the IOF crisis as a springboard for deeper fiscal reform. But while Haddad emerged with a short-term solution, the broader structural issues in the country’s public finances remain unaddressed.
Flanking Haddad on Sunday, House Speaker Hugo Motta and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre backed sweeping fiscal reforms, including a civil-service overhaul and tighter caps on public wages and military pensions. Yet while Congress champions fiscal discipline, lawmakers themselves are treating public funds like their own private reserve. And with elections nearing, don’t expect them to defy powerful lobbies anytime soon.
TAXES
Government yields on tax decree controversy
After several days of tension with Congress, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad brokered an agreement to revise a controversial tax decree, averting a full-scale legislative repeal that would have gutted the government’s fiscal plans. The result is a partial victory for the Lula administration, but one that fails to address fiscal issues in a more significant way.
The dispute centered on a decree that hiked Brazil’s financial transactions tax (IOF). Announced a couple of weeks ago, it sparked immediate backlash from lawmakers and markets. Under pressure, Congress threatened to strike down the decree entirely — a scenario that would have cost the government more than BRL 50 billion in projected revenue through 2026.
👉 Why it matters. The IOF is applied to the purchase of foreign currency in Brazil and functions as a quiet constraint on capital outflow. Though the government insists this was not the measure’s primary intention, critics argue that such barriers, however incidental, inject a note of caution among investors, who may hesitate to bring money into the country at all.
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