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2026 ELECTION

A (way) too early diagnosis of why Lula performed so poorly

In many ways, Lula governed like it was 2006. Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/PR

In many ways, Lula governed like it was 2006. Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/PR

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finished Sunday's first round almost two points behind Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with 45.16% of valid votes and roughly 3.4 million fewer ballots than he won in 2022. It was his weakest first-round showing since 1998, leaving the incumbent trailing into the Oct. 25 runoff with only a puncher's chance.

Over the past couple of years, commentators (especially from the foreign press) have reached for the Joe Biden comparison. On age, it is unfair. At 80, Lula remains sharp and physically vigorous. On economics, it fits uncomfortably well…

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