Lula leads the field, Flávio Bolsonaro rises

Quaest on Wednesday released Brazil’s first nationwide presidential opinion poll of 2026. In either of the two main camps ahead of the election, how the survey’s results are interpreted depends largely on whether one sees the glass as half full or half empty.

For President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the poll reinforces a pattern that has persisted throughout his current term: difficulty winning over voters who did not support him in 2022 (e.g. evangelical Christians, young men and residents of wealthier states). His personal approval rating remains stalled at 47%, with a net approval score of -2 points. Meanwhile, considering the government as a whole, 32% say it is doing a good job, while 39% say it is doing a bad one.