Lula’s hunt for Brazil’s missing voters rests on a shaky premise

Guilherme Boulos, one of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s closest allies, has given leftist activists a target for the Oct. 25 runoff against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. “There’s no point in us wasting time talking to a Bolsonaro supporter,” he said in a video published this week. “Our focus has to be the 33 million people who didn’t go to the polls, who abstained.”

The pitch has obvious appeal for a campaign that finished the first round almost 2 points behind Flávio, 47% to 45% of valid votes. If Lula’s voters stayed home, coaxing them back would be the shortest road to a fourth term. The turnout data is less convenient.