🤩 Panama’s new president and Milei’s old planes

Hello, and welcome to the Latin America Weekly newsletter! In this issue: The victory of a last-minute presidential candidate in Panama. Javier Milei’s pro-Western foreign agenda. And astonishing deforestation figures in Chile. 

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Mulino vows “bright economic future” for Panama

In a turbulent election for Panamanian standards, over 2.2 million voters of the small nation elected as president for a five-year term José Raúl Mulino, a 64-year-old conservative lawyer whose bid was cleared by local top courts just two days before Sunday’s single-round vote.

Protégé. Considered an unexpected president even by himself, Mr. Mulino almost retired from politics last year, but later accepted to run for vice president on a ticket led by popular former President Ricardo Martinelli — who was en route to reclaiming power, according to all polls.

• Everything changed, however, when controversial Mr. Martinelli was disqualified by electoral courts in March due to a decade-long conviction for money laundering, making Mr. Mulino the natural heir to Mr. Martinelli’s popularity among voters. 

Yes, but … Things would become darker when Mulino’s replacement candidacy was contested for alleged unconstitutionality, as he was neither chosen as a leading candidate through primaries nor had a vice president candidate on his side.

• Although the Supreme Court’s green light came late, it was sufficient to increase Mr. Mulino’s narrative of persecution, which in the end crystallized the support he inherited from his mentor: he won with the same 34 percent of votes many pollsters projected for Mr. Martinelli.

Past and future. “Mission accomplished, damn it,” said Mr. Mulino in his first speech as president-elect, promising to “end” political conflicts but citing “cowards and blackmailers” who tried to “twist the popular will” when referring to the prior contests to his bid.  

• But he also evoked endeavors from his former running mate’s years, saying “Panama will shine again economically as it did during the Martinelli administration,” repeating his promise to “attack unemployment and poverty like never before.” 

Challenges. Analysts say problems ahead of his term beginning in July are numerous, starting with a sluggish economy — the International Monetary Fund believes that Panama won’t grow at a 4-percent annual rate until 2029. The private sector meanwhile lists a water crisis disrupting the Panama Canal, social security issues, and the necessity of liable public fund management as “immediate priorities.”

• Mr. Mulino will also take office amid echoes of recent nationwide protests against inequality, corruption, and controversial mining deals.

Darién. The president-elect has also been emphatic regarding the rampant migration passing through the Darien gap, a jungle corridor that is mostly Panamanian territory: “I will close Darién,” he promised, saying “the U.S. border moved to Panama instead of Texas.” 

• As over half a million people crossed this dangerous strait, hitting an all-time high in 2023, Washington observes it closely, even mentioning the necessity of “cooperatively curbing irregular migration through Darién” when congratulating Mr. Mulino on his victory. 

Mulino. With a political career of ups and downs, Mr. Mulino is better known for serving as security minister during the Martinelli years (2009-2014), a position he resigned (and then “unresigned”) in 2012 over internal scandals involving the country’s police.   

• In 2015, he hit rock bottom after being preventively arrested on charges of crimes against the public administration, but the case was later annulled due to procedural errors. 

• But he also served as foreign affairs minister in the 1990s, following a protagonism achieved by engaging in civil campaigns against military dictator Manuel Noriega, ousted following an invasion of U.S. troops in Panama City in 1989. 

Congress. Voters’ distrust was reflected in the new legislature: only 13 of the 60 lawmakers seeking reelection on Sunday eventually won, as the major political force in the National Assembly will be now composed of multiple independent seats. 

• Furthermore, no major political party, including Messrs. Martinelli and Mulino’s Realizing Goals (RM), reached a majority, which will force the upcoming government to forge internal alliances.

• The results were also negative for the traditional incumbent Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), which went from 36 to 12 seats in Congress. The party had similarly catastrophic results in the presidential vote, with its candidate, current Vice President José Gabriel Carrizo, finishing sixth with less than 6 percent of the votes. 

What’s next. Economic and social challenges aside, the next president will also have to deal with the status of Ricardo Martinelli, who is currently living in the Nicaraguan embassy in Panama fearing jail. Under Mr. Mulino, Mr. Martinelli could finally be allowed a safe passage to Nicaragua, after being denied by the incumbent administration of Laurentino Cortizo.

• Messrs. Mulino and Cortizo met on Tuesday to discuss a “democratic and orderly transition, for the benefit of all Panamanians,” the outgoing leader said.

Milei takes an extreme pro-Western stance on foreign affairs

Less than five months since becoming president, Argentina’s Javier Milei has made four trips to the U.S., one to Israel, and one to Davos. He is also hoping to organize a visit to Ukraine, after meeting with President Volodímir Zelenski during his inauguration — all signs of a clear Western alignment.

Why it matters. Argentina’s foreign policy has taken a drastic turn since Mr. Milei took office, dropping an invitation to join the BRICS emerging market coalition and applying for membership in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) instead. 

China. As if declining BRICS membership wasn’t enough, the Milei government made several gestures against China since the start of his term, including a few signs of support towards China’s arch-enemy Taiwan, a red line for Beijing diplomats.

• Last week, Foreign Minister Diana Mondino traveled to China to try to mend fences, as Argentina needs continued support from the Asian giant due to billionaire debts incurred by the previous administration.

• But the trip did not go smoothly, with Ms. Mondino even having to clarify a controversial statement about a Chinese space station in Argentina, where she said that inspectors couldn’t find out if it was being used for military purposes because “they were Chinese, and they all looked alike.”

OECD. Things were quite different after Ms. Mondino boarded to Europe, where she was handed a roadmap to join the OECD, outlining economic reforms that the country must follow to become a member, including commitments on trade, corruption, and climate change.

NATO. Last month, Argentina’s Defense Minister Luis Petri also filed a letter formally requesting to join NATO as a global partner, a status that only Colombia shares in the region, following years of strong military cooperation with the U.S.

• The request was part of a larger political shift that also included the announcement of a joint U.S.-Argentina military base in Ushuaia, the country’s strategic southernmost province, countering the controversial Chinese station in the nearby Neuquén province.

Planes. Argentina is also investing USD 650 million in the purchase of 24 used F-16 planes and a series of complementary missiles, manufactured by U.S. military giant Lockheed Martin. 

• While Argentina’s military has had a strong preference for Western weapons, ideology, and alliances since the days of the Cold War, it had been torn on whether to buy jets from the West due to a conflict of interest regarding the Malvinas islands.

• The United Kingdom blocked the purchase of Korea’s KAI FA-50 jets in 2020, and Argentina entered into talks with China and Pakistan to buy military aircraft in response. The fact that the country ultimately bought these F-16s from Denmark is a clear Western victory on the matter.

Cuba. And as if all of that weren’t enough, Mr. Milei also decided to join the U.S. on its policy to block trade with Cuba, forcing the island’s flagship firm Cubana de Aviación to stop its flights to Argentina as the country refused to refuel its planes when they landed.

Chile lost ‘eight Santiagos’ of forest land in 20 years

A study from MapBiomas Chile published in April showed that more than 500,000 hectares of native forest were lost in the country in the last 20 years. The data was compiled between the regions of Center-South Valparaíso and Los Lagos and mentions a significant advance of deforestation “in a context of climate change and extreme drought.”

Why it matters. As forests account for around 22 percent of Chile’s total area, the amount of vegetation lost this century is equivalent to almost eight times the area of the country’s capital Santiago and more than three times the size of São Paulo, Latin America’s biggest city. 

• In 2015, the scientific magazine Global and Planetary Change research already alerted that central Chile had lost 83 percent of its original vegetable cover, making it one of the most deforested areas in the entire continent.  

• The study stresses that “in the case of the Center-South, the most significant change is the decline of species native to the Mediterranean climate.” 

Reasons. Most factors behind soaring deforestation figures are related to human-induced environmental alterations, such as the indiscriminate use of land for livestock and plantations, mineral resource extraction, and large construction projects, among others. 

• According to MapBiomas, agricultural and livestock uses occupy 4.8 million hectares in Chile, which is equivalent to the size of the Los Lagos region alone. Meanwhile, urban expansion increased by 33 percent between 2000 and 2022.

• “The annual maps of land occupation and use make it possible to assess the evolution of human use of the territory,” explains MapBiomas Chile coordinator Jaime Hernández, who says decision-makers need to have “robust technical support” in the face of future consequences such as the “lack of natural resources and urban settlements.”

Fires. The aforementioned elements can lead to increasingly frequent catastrophic fires when combined with heavy winds and periods of prolonged drought, this being one of the many alarming results of the current weather phenomenon known as El Niño, experts say. 

• This was precisely the case back in February, when 130 people died, 3,000 houses were burnt, and 30,000 hectares were destroyed by massive fires in central Chile, becoming one of the county’s worst natural disasters ever.

Melting. Although known for being the world’s largest copper producer, Chile’s biome is extremely varied, with a quarter of its territory consisting of soil and desert and a third in the south and extreme south housing the Patagonia, where 80 percent of Chilean glaciers are located. 

• But MapBiomas says in the same study that, during these 20 years, glaciers “have shrunk by 10 percent or approximately 410,000 hectares.” In 2022, The Brazilian Reportexplained that a similar accelerated melting was affecting the Andes mountain range, which spans seven South American countries and hosts a unique biome. 

Latin America. Deforestation is in fact, unfortunately, not just a Chilean problem; it affects all countries in the region to a greater or lesser extent, especially the Amazonian ones.  

• Recently, an annual monitoring by the World Resources Institute (WRI) showed that Brazil and Colombia led the reduction in deforestation between 2022 and 2023, recording drops of 36 and 49 percent, respectively. The reduction matched the start of more environment-committed left-wing administrations in both nations. 

Yes, but … Although an ideological shift paved the way for better numbers in some places, countries under leftist rulers like Bolivia and Nicaragua are among those that most accentuated deforestation of primary forests last year, underscoring a much deeper and more complex issue.

Quick catch up 

After severing Colombia’s diplomatic ties with Israel over the country’s “genocidal assault” on Palestinians, President Gustavo Petro urged the Israelis to consider a ceasefire.

The Inter-American Development Bank showed that 55 percent of Latin American and Caribbean workers have informal jobs covered neither by contracts nor social security. 

Peruvian lawmakers approved a text authorizing workers to withdraw 100 percent of their Compensation for Length of Service (CTS) payments until December 2024. 

Salvadoran lawmakers loyal to President Nayib Bukele approved a controversial change to facilitate constitutional reforms, clearing the way for the leader’s indefinite re-election. 

To compete with Bolivia’s gas exports, Paraguay is reportedly discussing a USD 1.5 billion gas pipeline project connected to Argentina and Brazil, reports Reuters. 

According to the crisis-mediating government of the Bahamas, the Kenyan police-led security mission will start deploying to Haitian territory on May 26, raising concerns.

After months of negotiations, Brazil and Paraguay have settled on the tariffs for the energy produced by the massive Itaipu Dam hydroelectric complex, shared by both countries. The arrangement will authorize Paraguay to sell its half of the energy produced by Itaipu to the private market.

Heavy rains that caused deadly floods in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, also reached areas in the north of Uruguay, displacing at least 700 people. 

The post 🤩 Panama’s new president and Milei’s old planes appeared first on The Brazilian Report.