🎙️ Podcast: Brasília enters an election year on edge

Brasília is back to work — and the new legislative year has opened with all the familiar trappings: lofty speeches about stability, institutional balance and dialogue, plus promises of an ambitious agenda ahead.

But this is no ordinary year.

Brazil is heading into a high-stakes election in October. Voters will choose a president, renew the entire House and elect two-thirds of the Senate — while also picking 27 governors and hundreds of state legislators. From now on, everything in Brasília will be filtered through the lens of the election: what Congress dares to vote on, what the government is willing to push forward, and even how and when Supreme Court justices make their moves.

And looming over all this is a growing source of anxiety.

Hovering above the capital is the Banco Master case — an investigation lawmakers privately describe as unpredictable, corrosive and potentially explosive. We touched on it last week, but its shadow is only getting longer.

Since Operation Car Wash erupted in 2014, Congress has not entered an election year under such a serious risk of being overwhelmed by corruption allegations — the kind that can torpedo campaigns, reshape alliances and, in some cases, lead to criminal consequences.

The fear isn’t just about what’s already known, it’s about what might still surface — and when. In an election year, timing can be as damaging as the facts themselves. That uncertainty is already influencing behavior across Congress, the executive branch and the Supreme Court.

So, as lawmakers and judges return to Brasília, what really matters now? Where are the political fault lines? And what signals should we be paying close attention to?

To unpack all of this, our guest this week is Mario Sergio Lima, chief Brazil analyst at Medley Global Advisors. 

In this conversation, he analyzes: