👑 AMLO’s heiress, bullfights, and air quality

Hello, and welcome to the Latin America Weekly newsletter! In this issue: President elect Claudia Sheinbaum is close to a supermajority in Mexico. Gustavo Petro celebrates as Colombia bans bullfighting. And the air pollution crisis in Honduras and Guatemala.

If you like our work and want to give us an extra boost, you can fill up our reporters’ coffee mugs. Supporters get exclusive perks! Find out more.

Sheinbaum’s supermajority could transform politics in Mexico

Claudia Sheinbaum’s landslide win in the Mexico national election was widely expected, in what many viewed as a referendum on her popular and powerful mentor, outgoing President Andrés Manuel “AMLO” López Obrador.

• But the margin of her victory added a twist to the story, and could transform politics and economics in Mexico in the six-year term that’s ahead of her. 

Landslide. In a sweeping victory, the 61-year-old former environmental scientist and Mexico City mayor secured a historic win as the country’s first female president. Surging ahead with 59 percent of the vote, she left her closest competitor Xóchitl Gálvez far behind with just 28 percent, and will be sworn into office on October 1.

Supermajorities. Crucially, the ruling Morena party and its allies also crushed local and legislative elections, meaning that the left-leaning coalition will have ample room to implement a reform agenda that has raised worries in Mexican markets and institutions. 

• The coalition will reach supermajority in the lower house, projected to win between 346 and 380 seats, with 334 needed to reach two-thirds; the Senate is too close to call, with estimates putting them between 76 and 88 representatives from 86 needed.

• Government allies won seven of nine governorship races as well, and now control 23 of 31 states, while also keeping Mexico City. Morena also made important inroads by securing a simple majority in 26 state congresses, up from the previous 22.

A new hegemony. The election makes Ms. Sheinbaum the “most powerful president in recent Mexican history”, surpassing AMLO’s 2018 vote tally, and “reminiscent of pre-democratic Mexico when the PRI was a monolithic party,” Alejandro Schtulmann, president of consultancy firm Emerging Markets Political Risk Analysis (EMPRA), told The Brazilian Report.

• The analyst referred to Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which controlled Mexican politics for most of the 20th century.

• AMLO, who rose to power by promising economic change and political renewal, has been accused of trying to replace the old PRI/PAN hegemony with a new Morena control over local institutions — although no one doubts that Morena’s electoral wins have been clean, unlike what happened with PRI.

Why it matters. Despite his massive influence, AMLO faced obstacles to pass some of his most controversial reforms, as many key laws in Mexico have constitutional status.

• Congress struck down a 2021 energy reform proposal that would have eliminated pro-market regulations imposed by previous administrations, and AMLO has also called for generous pension and labor reforms during the final months of his term.

• AMLO also clashed with Mexico’s judiciary, and replied by proposing radical reforms that included electing Supreme Court judges by popular vote.

• All of these ideas needed a qualified congressional majority to move forward, which the ruling coalition is now close to reaching.

Markets. Investors were spooked by the news, with the Mexican peso losing 4 percent on the day after, while stocks plummeted by around 10 percent. Ms. Sheinbaum tried to soothe fears in her victory speech, committing to fiscal discipline and respect for the country’s central bank, but her words were dismissed due to her campaign pledges to further AMLO’s legacy.

What next. The new leader of Mexico will inherit a country with ample nearshoring opportunities but a deteriorating fiscal picture. Politically, the big question mark will be how much influence the outgoing AMLO will exert on his protégé.

• “It is clear that President Lopez Obrador will maintain a great deal of influence over her government, at least during the first half of her term,” said Schtulmann. “He is expected to remain as his party’s political strategist and de facto leader in the near future.”

Colombia bans bullfighting in big triumph for animal rights activists 

Colombian lawmakers overwhelmingly passed a bill last week banning bullfights and other spectacles involving animal cruelty, a significant victory for animal rights advocates in a country where such controversial practices have been welcomed for generations. 

• The project had 93 votes in favor and only two against, and is now ready to be passed into law by President Gustavo Petro. The head of state celebrated the approval, calling the legal shift “the end of death as a form of spectacle.” 

Why it matters. The sport is a big tradition in countries of Spanish descent, and five of the eight nations where classic bullfighting still takes place are in Latin America. The reform means that Colombia will soon leave a list that includes Mexico, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela,  alongside Spain, France, and Portugal in Europe, where public antagonism against the sport is also significant. 

• Other countries in the region like Bolivia, the Dominican Republic, and Costa Rica authorize bloodless variations of bullfighting. The animal cannot be killed or hurt in these versions of the sport, but it is still subjected to a lot of stress, leading to continued criticism from opponents. 

Petro. Mr. Petro has been a big driver of change in Colombia, first vetoing the use of public facilities and resources for events involving bulls during his time as mayor of the country’s capital, Bogotá, in 2012.  

Backs and forths. Years later, authorities also greenlit modifications to reduce cruelty levels in these events, such as banning the slaying of bulls in public and eliminating the use of swords and flags. 

• But the issue remained unresolved, as courts later authorized its return after appeals from bullfighting groups, leading to years of debate between those who see the practice as animal abuse and others who consider it part of local culture. 

Transition. The new law will only come into effect in three years, a period established to allow families that depend on bullfighting to find alternative ways of earning a living.

• The issue is especially sensitive in cities like Manizales or Cali, where the bullfighting season can generate large tourism revenues and up to 5,000 indirect jobs, according to estimates from the sector.

• With that concern in mind, some lawmakers proposed regulating bullfighting instead of outright banning it. “We seek a middle ground between tradition, animal welfare, and job protection,” right-wing lawmaker Christian Garcés said.

What’s next. Although the possibility seems more remote now, Colombian bullfighters say they won’t give up on trying any legal alternatives at reach, including the country’s top courts, to overturn the nationwide ban approved by Congress. 

Honduras and Guatemala struggle with towering air pollution levels

Quality of life in Central America is often brought down by well-known issues such as crime or inequality. But nations like Honduras and Guatemala had to grapple with an unusual beast last month, as air pollution hit record levels in May, forcing governments to adopt urgent measures while triggering alerts across the region. 

Why it matters. The crisis forced the suspension of in-person activities like education, and brought back remote working to levels not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, as experts warned of the “chemical cocktail” that citizens would be exposed to if they ventured outside from home.

• Honduran capital Tegucigalpa saw delayed landings and takeoffs at its international airport, as thick white fog massively reduced pilots’ visibility, and the city recorded its “most contaminated day in history” on May 20.

Bad readings. Atmospheric contamination measured by the Air Quality Index (AQI) reached 430 points on the day, surpassing cities known for their high pollution levels, such as India’s capital New Delhi. The government said such rates were 820 percent above ideal limits.  

• The situation was similarly unsettling in San Pedro Sula, Honduras’s second-largest city, where air quality figures were 25 times above what guidelines from the World Health Organization (WHO) establish as adequate. 

Alert. The U.S. embassy in Tegucigalpa issued a recommendation for citizens “residing in or traveling to Honduras” to stay home, as air pollution had “reached unhealthy and even hazardous levels based on U.S. Environmental Protection (EPA) standards.”

Fires. The report said the primary reason behind the crisis was the persistent forest fires affecting extensive areas of Honduras, but also reaching into neighboring Guatemala, where multiple cities were also covered in smoke and toxic particles.

• More than 200,000 hectares of forest were affected by fires in Honduras alone this year, local authorities said.

• The crisis in local forests has been going on for years, but intensified in 2024 due to El Niño and other human-induced factors.

Response. Honduran President Xiomara Castro was sick with acute bronchitis during the crisis, but still declared an environmental emergency that put seven out of the country’s 18 departments under “red alert,” while Guatemala has continued to issue warnings about the “extremely bad” air conditions throughout May.

Regional. Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo underlined the fact that the crisis is affecting large portions of the continent, mentioning serious fires in distant places from Canada to Colombia. 

• Record-breaking high temperatures and droughts across Mesoamerica have also troubled Mexico’s water and energy supply, where a heat wave killed at least 48 people this year, a problem that has also affected Costa Rica.

What next. Honduran authorities expect some relief between June 5 to 15, as rainy days could help improve air quality levels, although that will coincide with the start of the North Atlantic hurricane season, which will bring a different type of concern. 

Quick catch up 

After securing reelection, Dominican President Luis Abinader also secured total legislative control, with his PRM party conquering absolute majorities in both chambers.

Amidst reports of bomb plots and criticism from the U.S., President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador took office for a new four-year term.

Haiti’s presidential transition council appointed longtime UN diplomat Garry Conille as the country’s new interim prime minister. In his inaugural address, he promised “unity.”

Following days of tension, Venezuela disinvited EU observers from its upcoming July elections, citing sanctions against Caracas’ top officials as the main reason behind the move. 

Argentina’s Javier Milei had a new crisis this week, amid complaints that the government was leaving food supplies to rot instead of distributing them to solidarity kitchens.

Chile will file a bid to host the 2036 Olympic Games, President Gabriel Boric said. Its capital Santiago was home to the Pan American Games in 2023, which served as a test. 

 Bolivian President Luis Arce will meet with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum between June 5 to 8, the Kremlin reported. 

Foreign Secretary Alicia Bárcena said Mexico’s dialogue with Ecuador was “canceled” after the Mexican embassy raid in Quito, rejecting the Andean nation’s will to resume talks. 

 Uruguay will provide water purification plants to flood-hit Rio Grande do Sul’s capital Porto Alegre. As of June, 172 people have died and 42 remain missing after the climate calamity. 

The post 👑 AMLO’s heiress, bullfights, and air quality appeared first on The Brazilian Report.