Why incumbency has not made Lula a clear-cut favorite

In private briefings with premium subscribers, The Brazilian Report often stresses a trait that makes Brazil hard to compare with its neighbors. Incumbency remains a formidable asset here. Roughly 18 million households (or 23%) rely on social programs, and the candidate who signs the checks starts every race ahead.

Jair Bolsonaro's 2022 defeat as a sitting president, and Lula's struggle against a challenger who fails to inspire even his own supporters, could suggest the rule has expired. We disagree. Bolsonaro carried massive rejection into 2022, threw every tool of the office at the electorate, and still lost by only 1.8 percentage points, with 400,000 more votes than in 2018. Despite voter fatigue, Lula remains statistically tied with the far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, and his approval ratings are inching up from their lows.