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TRADE

China’s food security plan could reduce its need to buy Brazilian soybeans

China is Brazil's number one commodity buyer. Photo: Alf Ribeiro/Shutterstock

Around 2018, surging Chinese demand for beef and soybeans transformed Brazilian agribusiness. The trade war during President Donald Trump's first term pushed Chinese importers to swap American grains for Brazilian ones within a few years, and a devastating disease in China's swine herds sent the country abroad in search of beef, paying a premium for Brazilian meat.

The shifts proved durable. China now buys 71% of Brazil's soybean exports and 54% of the beef it sells abroad — and the dependence runs both ways, with Brazil supplying more than 60% of China's soybean imports and roughly 40% of its beef. The United States is also a major soybean supplier to China, and New Zealand a leading source of dairy.

As the world's largest food importer, with a vast population, China accepts that it will always…

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