🏭 Old habits die hard

Washington's latest trade measures against Brazil — two Section 301 investigations, one ending in 25% tariffs and the other in duties of 12.5% across a broad range of goods — have driven bilateral relations to their lowest point in 200 years. They have also revived a tool Brazilian policymakers keep returning to: industrial policy.

The trade war opened in July 2025 with 50% US tariffs. Exceptions followed in August, and the US Supreme Court later struck down what remained. Brazil's Finance Ministry answered with the Sovereign Brazil Plan.

The mechanics were conventional: a one-year extension of…

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