☕ Brewing problems

For years, coffee harvests around the world have repeatedly fallen short of expectations, largely due to unfavorable climate conditions, just as global demand has surged. That has been the case for Brazil — the world’s top producer, responsible for about 40% of global supply — as well as for other major exporters such as Vietnam and Indonesia. The result has been a sharp drawdown in global inventories.

Earlier this year, the industry hoped output might improve, if only slightly, and that 2026 could even bring a super harvest — expectations that had helped ease prices. “Last year’s price hikes allowed producers to invest more in their crops, through structural pruning and irrigation,” said Celírio Inácio, executive director of Brazil’s coffee producer association, ABIC.

Then came two shocks…

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