🗳 Election Observatory: Aug. 31

— by Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office

For the first time since the campaign formally began, some settled assumptions shifted. A run of interviews on Jornal Nacional, the start of free electoral advertising on television and radio, and Augusto Cury's unexpected rise all show that exposure can still move an election that is otherwise locked in the polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.

The interviews on Brazil's leading newscast worked as a stress test. Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema struggled to detail their proposals. Renan Santos was pressed on whether parts of his platform are constitutional. Lula and Flávio faced the questions that will trail them all campaign: corruption and the investigations touching their respective camps.

Lula came off worst. He denied knowing a figure tied to the investigation involving his son, and social media answered within minutes with photographs of the two together. Flávio met questions about the Banco Master case mostly by attacking his opponent.

The beneficiary was Cury. After the first presidential debate and a Jornal Nacional appearance, both in a moderate register that rejected polarization, he moved into third place in two polls: 11% in Nexus and 7.8% in Atlas Intel. Whether that holds is unclear. But it suggests the historical failure of a "third way" in Brazil may have had as much to do with the candidates as with the electorate, which never got a recognizable alternative to the two poles.

Free electoral advertising begins now. Lula and Flávio take most of the airtime; Zema and Renan get none. Audiences for the traditional campaign blocks keep shrinking, but the 30-second spots scattered through regular programming still reach voters that social media does not.

The campaign has produced its first surprise. Television and radio will test whether it can produce more.

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Brazil's six best-positioned presidential candidates spent last week taking turns being grilled on Jornal Nacional, the country's main newscast. One by one, Monday through Friday, each faced 40 minutes of uncomfortable questions. Almost none escaped unscathed.

Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema came off as unprepared, unable to supply basic details about their own proposals. The two anchors, who interrupt freely when candidates wander, told Renan Santos that many of his proposals are unconstitutional.

The frontrunners, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, showed why they avoid interviews outside friendly outlets. Pressed on the scandals shadowing their campaigns — the INSS fraud and the investigations into Lula's son; the Banco Master affair for Flávio — both fumbled the most predictable questions.

Lula grew irritated and rambled about the character assassinations of the now-defunct Operation Car Wash, many of whose verdicts were later overturned. Flávio's reflex was to point at Lula's problems rather than answer for his own.

Only Lula, though, inflicted a real wound on himself. He said he had never met the lobbyist at the center of the influence-peddling investigation involving his son. Before the interview ended, social media was flooded with photos of the two together at left-wing rallies.

Augusto Cury, a best-selling self-help author, was the week's only winner. He could not offer coherent proposals either, but his mild manner and appeals against polarization struck a chord: he leapfrogged Caiado, Zema, and Santos into third place in two polls released Monday (more below).

Two polls released Monday shook the political establishment. Augusto Cury, of the small Avante party, took third place in both: 11% in Nexus's survey, 7.8% in Atlas Intel's.

The numbers force rivals and analysts to take Cury seriously for the first time since he entered the race. His rise followed two bursts of exposure: the Aug. 23 presidential debate, which Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula, and Romeu Zema all skipped, and last week's Jornal Nacional interview. His asset appears to be a rhetoric that refuses polarization, suggesting the third way's failure to gain traction has been a problem of supply rather than demand.

The Brazilian Report's editor-in-chief, Gustavo Ribeiro, and James Green, the Brown University historian who chairs the Brazil Office Alliance, discussed what Cury's rise means for the race on our latest joint podcast.

Justice Dias Toffoli of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on Monday suspended all digital advertising by the Renan Santos campaign, barred it from drawing on the public electoral fund — the largest source of campaign money in Brazil — and blocked Santos from any debate, in any medium.

The trigger was a paperwork failure. Electoral law requires candidates to disclose every social media profile used by their campaigns. Santos registered his candidacy on Aug. 7 but disclosed the profiles 12 days later. Platforms must pull candidate profiles out of algorithmic recommendations to prevent an unfair boost, and the delay kept Santos's network outside that filter. Toffoli gave the platforms up to six hours after notification to apply it. 

Santos now faces the possibility of having his candidacy registration denied. He cried foul, calling the ruling retaliation for the protests he organized to denounce Toffoli's alleged involvement in the Banco Master scandal. Demétrio Vecchioli, a journalist at the website Metrópoles, said the TSE told him last week that this kind of infraction carries a fine — and made no mention of denying a registration.

Several observers have criticized the decision and expect the full seven-member court to overturn it.

The Minas Gerais State Electoral Court is examining a similar case: whether Congressman Nikolas Ferreira, one of the most prominent far-right voices, was kept outside the recommendation filter. There, the scrutiny falls on X rather than the candidate, since Ferreira's profile was properly listed.

Free airtime on television and radio began Friday and runs until Oct. 1, three days before Election Day. Monday through Saturday, candidates share two 12-and-a-half-minute blocks a day, at lunchtime and early evening, plus 70 minutes of 30-second spots between 5 am and midnight.

The mini ads are the real asset. Brazilians have tired of the long blocks, and viewership drops the moment they begin — to cable, which is not required to carry them, or to smartphones. The 30-second spots run as ordinary commercials inside the schedule, catching voters with their guard down.

In the US, campaigns buy their own time. In France, every candidate gets the same amount. In Brazil, airtime is free but apportioned among the parties in proportion to their seats in the lower house. Lula (5:31) and Flávio Bolsonaro (4:20) draw the largest slots, followed by Ronaldo Caiado (2:02) and Augusto Cury (35 seconds a day). Romeu Zema and Renan Santos get nothing: their parties failed to meet the performance thresholds.

Brazil and the US resumed trade talks after Lula and Donald Trump spoke by phone on Aug. 21. At issue are the recent US tariffs on Brazilian exports: 25% over alleged unfair trade practices, plus 12.5% for what Washington says is a failure to curb imports made with slave labor. Industry and Trade Minister Márcio Elias Rosa and Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer online on Monday, with more sessions to be scheduled. Few in Brasília expect much. The reading there is that Washington wants to keep maximum pressure on Brazil to tilt the election toward Flávio Bolsonaro.