🗳 Election Observatory: Oct. 26

We have reached the final edition of the 2026 Election Observatory. After months of following one of the most polarized, competitive, and unpredictable elections in Brazil’s recent history, the ballot box has delivered its verdict: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been elected to a fourth presidential term, completing an unprecedented comeback from the first to the second round.

His electoral recovery in major cities, urban peripheries, and lower-income communities revealed the mobilizing power of a society that, once again, went to the polls to decide its future. But the result also confirmed a deeply divided country, one that will continue to require efforts to foster dialogue, rebuild trust, and strengthen democratic institutions.

The election is over, but its challenges are not. Flávio Bolsonaro’s announced challenge to the result, ongoing judicial investigations, the sharp reaction of financial markets, and the composition of a politically adversarial Congress all foreshadow significant difficulties for the next administration.

Electoral victory does not eliminate the social and institutional conflicts that shaped the campaign. Governing will require building majorities, confronting inequalities, restoring public trust, and ensuring that political differences are resolved within constitutional rules. The quality of a democracy is measured not only by its ability to hold competitive elections, but also by its capacity to respect their outcomes and guarantee the legitimate functioning of its institutions.

Throughout this journey, we sought to offer the international community more than a succession of news stories. We aimed to interpret events, contextualize opinion polls, explain how institutions work, monitor the risks of foreign interference, identify the interests at stake, and present the different forces shaping Brazilian politics.

We hope to have contributed to a deeper understanding of Brazil, its contradictions, its democratic achievements, and the challenges that remain. Above all, we hope we have helped our readers distinguish facts from narratives, genuine risks from speculation, and legitimate political disputes from threats to democratic integrity.

This work was made possible through the partnership between the Washington Brazil Office, the Brazil Office Alliance, and The Brazilian Report. This collaboration among organizations committed to informed analysis, independent journalism, and international dialogue demonstrated the value of bringing together different experiences and perspectives to follow developments of profound importance to Brazil and the world.

We thank the teams, researchers, journalists, analysts, and contributors who made every edition possible, as well as everyone who followed our coverage and joined our special Election Day broadcast.

To our readers, we extend our heartfelt gratitude for your trust and for accompanying us throughout these months. We hope we have helped you understand not only who would win, but what was truly at stake. We close this Observatory with the conviction that informing, investigating, fostering dialogue, and defending the integrity of democratic processes are ongoing responsibilities. The elections are over. Brazil’s political history continues. And so does our commitment to following it.

Thank you all for being part of this journey.

Journalism and democracy are inseparable — and right now, both are under threat. A free press is not a luxury; it is the infrastructure of accountable governance, and when it weakens, so does everything else. That is why your support matters. 

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term on Sunday, beating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2%, by 4.4 million votes. No candidate in Brazilian history had trailed after the first round and gone on to win.

Election day was marred by bus shortages that the Justice Ministry flagged in eight states, many in cities run by Bolsonaro-aligned mayors. Both campaigns asked for more time, and Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting by two hours. Flávio now says he will seek to annul the result, though his party requested the same extension in five states.

The extension does not explain the outcome. Lula’s share rose between rounds in 5,566 of Brazil’s 5,570 municipalities, by a median of 5.1 percentage points, while Flávio gained 0.6 points. Lula flipped 213 municipalities, including Rio de Janeiro (the Bolsonaros’ political birthplace), and lost only one. Lower abstention and fewer blank and spoiled ballots added about 4.6 million valid votes, slightly more than his margin.

The gains were uneven. The swing toward Lula was largest in populous municipalities and those with larger black populations, and smallest in farm country (we mentioned that rural/urban divide after the first round). In the most agricultural 10th of municipalities, it reached a median of 3.5 points, against 5.9 points in the least agricultural.

Income remains the sharpest divide. In the first round, Lula took 77.8% of valid votes in the poorest tenth of neighborhoods, by 2022 Census income, and 36.4% in the richest. Flávio peaked in upper-middle-income areas, at 57.2%.

Governing will be harder. The Liberal Party will hold the largest blocs in both houses of Congress, and public debt is on track to exceed 83% of GDP. Lula opened his victory speech by praising Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and pledging to “change the way we govern this country.” Each camp heard what it wanted. The left took it as a promise of more popular participation, and the right as a turn to the center.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s refusal to accept defeat surprised no one. The senator said he would seek to annul the runoff, accusing Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, Lula’s former lawyer, of changing “the rules of the game in the middle of the game” by extending voting by two hours. On Oct. 16, he had said, “Whatever the result, I will respect it.”

His case is thin. Only 34,330 votes, or 0.03% of the total, were cast after 5 pm, and his campaign had also sought extensions in three states. Flávio plans to ask electoral courts to strip Lula’s ticket for abuse of economic power, without saying what evidence he has.

Like his father in 2022, he lost and cried foul. Unlike then, supporters have not taken to the streets. On Monday, Flávio announced he would lead the opposition to Lula’s fourth term. 

Missed our Election Day broadcast? It’s now available to watch in full. On Sunday, The Brazilian Report teamed up with the Brazil Office Alliance to cover Brazil’s runoff live, from the first returns to Lula’s victory speech. Our analysts broke down the results as they came in and explained what they mean for the country’s next four years. Whether you followed along or are just catching up, it’s the best place to start making sense of what comes next.

Federal Police on Monday ordered Senator Flávio Bolsonaro to surrender his passports and barred him from leaving the country, one day after he lost the presidential runoff to Lula. A day later, he had left Brazil — according to allies, for the US.

Flávio is the target of two Supreme Court probes. One, overseen by Moraes, examines alleged money laundering through betting platforms linked to lawyer Willer Tomaz, whose assets were frozen at up to BRL 6 billion last week. Police found Flávio listed as a “master” user on an account of Tomaz’s company Alcazar Holdings. The other, led by Justice André Mendonça, investigates how former Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro helped finance “Dark Horse,” a biopic of Jair Bolsonaro. Police have requested 90 more days for that inquiry.

The passport seizure was ordered by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, a lightning rod for far-right vitriol since he oversaw the investigations that led to the conviction and imprisonment of Flávio’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, for plotting a coup. Moraes now faces a corruption scandal of his own, and the far right ran on impeaching him.

Flávio loses his seat and his special jurisdiction privileges in February 2027. Under a March 2025 ruling, however, cases tied to his mandate may remain at the Supreme Court. He denies all wrongdoing.

Brazilian markets had their worst day in years on Monday after President Lula’s runoff victory over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The US dollar rose 8.2% against the real, closing at BRL 5.40, up from BRL 4.99 on Friday. The Ibovespa stock index fell 13.88% to 176,608 points, its steepest daily drop since March 2020.

Circuit breakers halted trading in stocks, currency, and interest-rate futures. At its intraday peak, the dollar’s 12% surge exceeded even the jump of January 1999, when Brazil floated its currency. The Treasury bought back nearly BRL 15 billion in government bonds, and the Central Bank injected USD 3.75 billion through currency swaps.

Investors had bet heavily on a Flávio win and the fiscal austerity it promised (although, to voters, he vowed to keep and dial up social programs). Analysts now await Lula’s choice of finance minister and a credible fiscal plan.