🗳 Election Observatory: Oct. 6

— by Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office 

The first round of the elections on October 4 did not decide who will be Brazil’s next president, but it changed the country’s political balance. Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead, with 47.03% of valid votes, against Lula’s 45.16%. The gap is narrow, but its significance extends beyond the presidential race: the Bolsonaro movement expanded its presence in Congress and enters the runoff strengthened. 

The election remains open; however, the conditions for governing over the next four years have already begun to take shape.

The Liberal Party (PL) won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and will hold 28 in the Senate, making it the largest party in both chambers. These gains increase its influence over the legislative agenda, the selection of congressional leaders, and relations with the Supreme Federal Court. A Lula victory would face greater parliamentary resistance. A Flávio victory could bring the executive and legislative branches together around an institutional transformation whose democratic limits will require scrutiny.

It would be premature to reduce the outcome to a single explanation. Voting decisions reflect assessments of income, the cost of living, security, corruption, public services, and trust in institutions. Nor does a demand for change mean that society has granted a mandate to weaken rights or democratic checks. Both candidates must clarify what change they offer, who would benefit, and what commitments they make to the Constitution.

For Lula, the challenge is to present a future that goes beyond defending the past. An incumbent must acknowledge public dissatisfaction, account for his or her administration's limitations, and explain what she or he will do differently. For Flávio, his lead brings greater responsibility to present proposals that can be assessed and to clarify how he intends to exercise power, including amid pressure from allies for amnesties for those involved in the attempt to overthrow the Lula government in 2022/23 and the removal of Supreme Court justices. Both owe the country concrete answers.

Until October 25, our bulletin will follow proposals, alliances, and polls, as well as commitments to rights, participation, and the separation of powers. We will need to distinguish legitimate criticism from institutional threats, promises from implementable measures, and political support from foreign interference.

The quality of democracy depends on these distinctions, especially as the contest intensifies. The first round redistributed power. The runoff will determine how that power is exercised and within what limits.

Journalism and democracy are inseparable — and right now, both are under threat. A free press is not a luxury; it is the infrastructure of accountable governance, and when it weakens, so does everything else. That is why your support matters. 

By donating to the International Observatory on Brazil's 2026 Elections, you are directly funding the journalists and editors who make this work possible. Every contribution goes toward staffing, deeper coverage and the tools we need to do this job the right way — on behalf of readers like you.

Brazil's right swept Sunday's first round, lifting Flávio Bolsonaro past President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and handing his allies Congress and most statehouses. Flávio won 47.03% of valid votes against Lula's 45.16%, a gap of roughly 2.2 million, and the two face off on October 25. Lula has not posted a weaker first-round share since 1998.

The shift spared no region. A municipal-level analysis by The Brazilian Report (see an interactive dashboard) shows Flávio improving on his father's 2022 share in 5,460 of 5,567 municipalities and carrying every state in the South, Southeast, and Center-West, including Minas Gerais (a state seen as pivotal for its demographics). Lula held only the Northeast and three Northern states, all by thinner margins.

The Liberal Party (PL) became the largest bench in both chambers, with 121 seats in the House (of 513) and 28 senators (of 81). Backed by center-right parties and the evangelical and agribusiness caucuses, the right should clear majority thresholds with ease. Anger at the Supreme Court fueled the Senate surge, with candidates openly promising to impeach justices. Lula's Workers' Party kept just three governorships.

Markets rallied. The real climbed nearly 5%, pushing the dollar under the psychological mark of BRL 5, and stocks jumped almost 8%. But a Flávio presidency would likely put amnesty for his father and a confrontation with the courts ahead of fiscal repair.

Lula still has the tolls of incumbency on his side, but the race is now Flávio's to lose. Most voters who backed eliminated candidates lean right, which leaves Lula little room to close the gap. No first-round runner-up has ever won a Brazilian presidential runoff. Even if Lula recovers, he would face a hostile Congress. 

On election night, The Brazilian Report and the Brazil Office Alliance hosted a live broadcast that tracked the results as they came in and examined the forces that shaped the vote. Editor-in-chief Gustavo Ribeiro and historian James Green, of the Brazil Office Alliance, led a panel of analysts, pollsters, and researchers. More than 10,000 people followed the election with us. If you didn't, you can watch the full broadcast here:

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has sent emissaries to sound out João Santana, the strategist behind his 2006 victory and Dilma Rousseff's wins in 2010 and 2014, after finishing behind Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, news website Metrópoles reported. Some aides want Santana to replace Raul Rabello, a business partner of communications minister Sidônio Palmeira. 

Santana was jailed amid the Operation Car Wash anti-corruption task force and signed a plea deal — making him persona non grata among left-leaning circles. The Supreme Court annulled his conviction in 2024, ruling that Sergio Moro, then a judge, lacked jurisdiction.

Voters in 20 of Brazil's 27 states picked their governors outright on Sunday, the most first-round decisions since the return to democracy in the 1980s. The previous record was 18, in 2010. The remaining seven states hold runoffs on Oct. 25.

Jair Bolsonaro's Liberal Party won five governorships, including Paraná, where Sergio Moro, the former Car Wash judge, scraped through with 50.1% of valid votes. The Social Democratic Party took four. President Lula's Workers' Party re-elected governors in Bahia, Ceará and Piauí, where Rafael Fonteles posted the night's biggest win, with 70.9%.

Tarcísio de Freitas, a Bolsonaro ally, cruised to a second term in São Paulo with 62.65%. In Minas Gerais, Senator Cleitinho of the Republicans party won with 55.4%, and Luciano Zucco, a retired army officer and former opposition leader in Congress, took Rio Grande do Sul with 58%.