🗳 Election Observatory: Sep. 15

— by Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office

A runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remains the likeliest outcome of Brazil's presidential election. With less than three weeks until the Oct. 4 vote, that assumption is no longer safe.

The polls show why. Pollster Ideia puts Lula at 38.4% and Bolsonaro at 37.3%; Datafolha has 39% to 35%; Quaest, 36% to 31%. In a runoff, surveys point to a statistical tie. Votes are concentrating around the two men, and in a polarized race, small shifts in the final weeks can matter far more than they suggest.

Maurício Moura, founder of Instituto Ideia, has argued that a first-round victory for Flávio should not be considered a surprise. His hypothesis is late-stage anti-Workers' Party (PT) consolidation. Voters now backing other opposition candidates could cast a strategic vote against the Workers' Party in the first round rather than wait to rally behind Lula's opponent in a runoff.

The two camps are not symmetrical. Lula already holds virtually the entire left and center-left. Centrist and right-wing candidates still compete for voters who reject the PT, so a wave of strategic voting toward Bolsonaro would draw from a larger pool.

A second unknown is the "shy vote," voters who conceal their preference from pollsters. No evidence suggests one exists for Bolsonaro, and there is no way to measure it. But some voters may hesitate to declare support for a candidate surrounded by allegations and investigations, the son of an imprisoned former president, yet vote for him anyway out of anti-PT sentiment, dissatisfaction with Lula, cost-of-living worries or a wish for change.

The two effects differ. Strategic voting can still be manufactured by the campaign; a shy vote, if real, is already hidden in the numbers. Neither would need to be large to change the result.

The question is no longer only who would win a runoff, but whether there will be one. A majority of valid votes ends the race on Oct. 4, and turnout, abstention and further consolidation all change that math. When two candidates absorb nearly all of the competitive vote, a few percentage points decide not just who wins, but when.

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A rival candidate has accused Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a front-runner in October's presidential election, of being bankrolled from the United States. 

Renan Santos, leader of the far-right Mission party, points to a 22-page slide deck titled "Flávio Bolsonaro Prosperity Partnership." Dated March 19 and authored, according to its metadata, by André Marinho, a candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro, it offers Washington an alliance on critical minerals under a Bolsonaro presidency. "Brazil is offering scale, speed and alignment," it reads. The word alignment appears more than 20 times.

Santos also alleges ties to the Rockbridge Network, a donor group co-founded by Vice President JD Vance. An April campaign document lists Pedro Sang as chief executive of Rockbridge Network Brasil; staff at Bolsonaro's São Paulo headquarters call him "Pedro from Rockbridge."

Brazil's Constitution bars parties from accepting foreign support, and a proven violation can void a candidacy. "The Judiciary has already shown it is willing to protect Brazilian sovereignty," a Supreme Court justice said on condition of anonymity.

Santos, whose own campaign has stalled, is not a neutral observer. Bolsonaro's campaign has not commented. Sang denies the claims; Marinho says the deck was never presented to US officials. A Workers' Party congressman has asked the Supreme Court to investigate.

The documents reviewed by The Brazilian Report show a US-style influence network forming around the candidacy, but don't prove that foreign money changed hands. An investigation would bring scrutiny of money flows, which would settle the issue.

Brazil's Supreme Court convened Tuesday to decide, for the first time in its 135-year history, whether to investigate one of its own members, Alexandre de Moraes, over messages from Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master. The session ended with no decision.

Two justices, Kassio Nunes Marques and Dias Toffoli, recused themselves after new messages from Vorcaro's phone cited payments to Nunes Marques's son. Gilmar Mendes then moved to suspend the case and merge it with a separate inquiry request against André Mendonça, the justice who built the case against Moraes (that case will be heard next week).

The court was set to rejecte that, 4 to 3, before Flávio Dino halted proceedings by requesting more time to study the file. 

Conservatives accuse Dino of shielding Moraes from accountability — a move that risks deepening public doubts about a court already mistrusted by 56% of voters, according to Quaest.

At least five of the court's 10 sitting justices have ties to Vorcaro, ranging from his contracts with their relatives to his direct dealings with the justices themselves. A court this compromised cannot has become the focal point with an election less than three weeks away, and that serves one camp. Bolsonarism thrives on institutions in shambles. 

The winner in October may name up to four justices — and shape the court for a generation.

Brazil's leading polls now point in opposite directions. Quaest, released Monday, shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Lula in a runoff for the first time since April. Nexus, published hours earlier, shows Bolsonaro slipping, with Lula at 47% to 46%.

Methodology may explain part of the gap. Phone and online surveys draw samples that skew toward engaged voters and register shifts faster; Quaest's methodology moves more slowly. Lula's allies make that argument; Bolsonaro's camp says the numbers show his support hardening.

The larger problem is what comes next. The Supreme Court is engulfed in a crisis, and the fallout is reaching candidates. Bolsonaro is under investigation for money laundering — and Lula's son faces three inquiries. Datafolha found the court scandals unsettled 8% of Lula's voters and 5% of Bolsonaro's, and moved 4% of the electorate. In a race this close, that churn is the whole game. How the polls absorb the next disclosure, nobody can say.