🗳 Election Observatory: Sep. 22

— by Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office

The penultimate bulletin before Brazil’s elections finds the country in a particularly sensitive moment: the presidential race remains within the margin of error, the institutional environment is under strain, and the international dimension is no longer peripheral. Recent polls place Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro within a statistical tie in potential runoff scenarios. 

For the international community, however, the central issue is no longer anticipating who will win but understanding that the most important democratic test may begin precisely after the polls close. 

The October 4 first round may not settle the presidential race. If no candidate wins an absolute majority of valid votes, a runoff will take place on October 25. Brazil could therefore enter another three weeks of campaigning under even more intense conditions, with less room for electoral movement and stronger incentives for conflict over corruption, judicial decisions, public security, the economy, and institutional legitimacy. 

In such a closely contested election, seemingly secondary events can acquire disproportionate political significance.

Above all, foreign governments, international organizations, the press, and civil society should watch closely for one issue: the contest over the legitimacy of the electoral process itself. The recent crisis within the Supreme Court, challenges to judicial decisions, and investigations involving figures from different political camps have created an environment in which almost any institutional move can immediately be interpreted as favoring one side. 

The Supreme Court crisis itself is increasingly seen as a problem that could outlast the election and continue well beyond it. 

Relations with the US add another layer of uncertainty. A Brazilian intelligence report classified the risk of foreign influence or interference as critical. In contrast, Brazilian officials and analysts continue to closely monitor tariffs, sanctions, and political signals coming from Washington. This assessment is not evidence that anyone will attempt to alter or delegitimize the result. 

Still, it means any foreign statement during the vote or immediately afterward will be received in an atmosphere of heightened suspicion. In this context, recognition of the results based on verifiable information and Brazil’s electoral institutions will be particularly important.

For that reason, perhaps the best way for the international community to prepare for October 4 is to understand that the task is not simply to watch the vote count. It will also be necessary to observe the candidates’ reactions, the conduct of institutions, the circulation of disinformation, any external pressure, and, above all, political actors' willingness to accept democratic procedures even when the outcome is unfavorable to them. 

Brazil is going to the polls with an unresolved election. The real test will be whether everyone accepts that democratic rules must settle this uncertainty.

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used the opening of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday to warn the United States against meddling in Brazil's Oct. 4 election, speaking minutes before Donald Trump took the same podium.

Washington went unnamed, but not unaddressed as Lula made sovereignty the thread of his speech. "We are once again witnessing foreign interference in electoral processes," he said. The line was a jab at Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president's son, whose Washington lobbying preceded US tariffs. He vowed not to let "the enemies of democracy, internal and external," override the popular will.

The same logic ran through his other pledges. Brazil will cooperate against organized crime but not outsource the fight, he said, and will develop critical minerals at home rather than export raw materials. "We do not need aircraft carriers watching over our waters," he added.

He also revisited climate change, energy transition, protecting women and ending Brazil's six-day workweek.

Two damaging reports hit Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign on Monday. Magazine Piauí revealed that in 2023 the senator steered a BRL 200,000 (USD 39,000) congressional budgetary grant to a youth soccer project in a Rio de Janeiro militia stronghold at the request of Robson Calixto Fonseca, known as Peixe. 

A former military police officer, Peixe was convicted in February as the operational arm of the Brazão brothers' criminal organization. The brothers were found guilty of ordering the 2018 murder of Councilwoman Marielle Franco. Federal Police records show a Flávio aide urging Peixe to press the senator in person. The money arrived weeks later.

Separately, messages seized from former Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro show him panicking that an alleged late-2024 dinner with Flávio and Jair Bolsonaro would leak. "This thing will finish me," he wrote. Earlier in the race, Flávio was hit by revelations that he received dozens of millions of reais from Vorcaro (the senator claims the money was used to pay for a biopic about his father, Jair Bolsonaro).

In an election short on policy debate, scandal has driven the momentum swings. Lula's campaign hopes the fallout swings it one more time.

Brazil's intelligence agency, ABIN, rates the risk of US interference in October's election as critical, according to a classified report delivered in August to the president's office, the Superior Electoral Court, and the Justice Ministry. ABIN describes gradual, selective pressure aimed at restoring US hegemony over Latin America and its natural resources. Since July, Washington has imposed 37.5% tariffs and sanctioned alleged PCC money launderers, while investors from JD Vance's donor network circle Bahia's rare earths. The press, however, has focused on Supreme Court scandals, which reliably drive traffic.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are separated by just 0.2 points in a potential runoff, according to UOL's poll aggregator, updated Monday after a new Quaest survey. Lula leads 44.3% to 44.1%, down from a 0.6-point edge on September 17. In the first round, Lula leads Flávio 38.8% to 34.4%, with Augusto Cury a distant third at 6.9%. The aggregator combines presidential polls registered with the Superior Electoral Court since January.

Seventeen days before the first round of voting, the Lula administration raised the minimum Bolsa Família payment by 15%. The first deposits at the new rate will reach beneficiaries six days before the runoff. Opponents cried foul, calling it a populist bid to sway the vote and noting that electoral law bars expanding social programs in an election year. The Finance Ministry leaned on semantics, saying the increase was not a raise but an inflation adjustment. A Supreme Court justice sided with the government.