INTEREST RATES
Central Bank faces unusually split market ahead of rate decision
Members of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee during a Jan. 2025 meeting. Photo: Raphael Ribeiro/BCB
Brazil’s Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee will later today announce whether it will hold or raise the country’s benchmark interest rate, which currently stands at 14.75%. For once, analysts are split on the outcome.
A slim majority of banks and economists anticipate no change to the Selic benchmark rate, according to surveys by local media outlets and the Central Bank’s own Focus Report, a weekly poll of top-rated investment firms. That report has shown, for six consecutive weeks, a median projection that the rate will hold steady through the end of 2025.
But the prevailing consensus that once defined Brazilian monetary policy forecasts is fraying. About 40% of firms surveyed by local outlets now expect a hike to 15% this week. Finance newspaper Valor noted this is the sharpest split among its 126 respondents since May 2024, when the committee reached its rate decision by an uncommon 5-4 vote…
🔒 This was a free preview; the rest is behind our paywall
Don’t miss out! Upgrade to unlock full access. The process takes only seconds with Apple Pay or Stripe. Become a member.
Why you should subscribe
We’re here for readers who want to truly understand Brazil and Latin America — a region too often ignored or misrepresented by the international media.
Since 2017, our reporting has been powered by paid subscribers. They’re the reason we can keep a full-time team of 10 journalists across Brazil and Argentina, delivering sharp, independent coverage every day.
If you value our work, subscribing is the best way to keep it going — and growing.
Our annual plan goes for just USD 0.52 a day — but the value you'll get back from it is truly immeasurable. So… what’s stopping you from joining right now?
