Latin America’s year of strategic recalibration

Over the past 200 years, Latin America and the Caribbean have sought to balance the preservation of their political autonomy with the strategic regional interests of the US. With this in mind, foreign power interference in domestic affairs — including through coercive means — is far from being a novelty in the region.

That said, recent episodes of US involvement have nonetheless raised eyebrows. As a seasoned Brazilian diplomat recently confided to me, the American playbook has remained virtually unchanged, with the only difference being the speed and aggressiveness with which it is being deployed.

If the Trump administration operated according to predictable and linear logic, projecting scenarios for Latin America vis-à-vis Washington would be far less complex. Instead, this administration embraces unpredictability and confrontation as key parts of its domestic and foreign policy, amplifying uncertainty and making any forward-looking analysis challenging.