🚢 Taking stock of a trade shock

Much has changed since July, when the US announced punitive 40% tariffs on Brazilian goods and began imposing one of the world’s steepest levies, despite maintaining a longstanding trade surplus with Brazil.

On the political front, what started as a closed road between the two countries has shifted to evolving trade talks and, surprisingly, cordial meetings between Presidents Donald Trump and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. One key justification the Trump administration gave for the tariffs was to put pressure on Brazilian authorities to end their criminal case against former President Jair Bolsonaro, who plotted a coup d’état after losing the 2022 election. Since then, the far-right figure has been convicted and, as of this week, is serving a 27-year sentence.

Meanwhile, the US government has…

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