🙃 Trump upends Mexico and Colombia

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Trump wants to make an example out of Colombia

Colombia made an unexpected appearance in the world’s top headlines this weekend when US President Donald Trump hit the country with a barrage of trade, travel and financial sanctions. The decision came after two United States military planes full of deported migrants were denied landing rights by Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro.

👉 Why it matters. Petro was forced to backtrack due to the enormous strain that tariffs would have placed on his country, showcasing the risks of challenging the recently sworn-in Trump at the height of his powers. While Colombia might end up escaping sanctions, the case will likely stick in the minds of other leaders thinking about crossing the US president.

The planes. The conflict started when Petro protested about the treatment given to illegal immigrants deported from the US, pictured with their hands and feet shackled as they boarded planes back to their home countries.

• “A migrant is not a criminal, and they must be treated with the dignity that a human being deserves. This is why I ordered the US military planes bringing Colombian migrants to turn back,” Petro said on January 26.

Sanctions. Angered by what they described as a sudden turnaround after initially authorizing the flights, the Trump administration promised massive sanctions against Colombia if the refusal continued. These included:

• A 25% tariff on all Colombian goods sold to the US, rising to 50% next week if the conflict were to continue.

• Enhanced inspections on all Colombian cargo, as well as IEEPA sanctions that could block Colombian businesses and financial remittances.

• Travel bans and visa revocations for Colombian government officials, as well as their family members and political allies.

Risks. The US is by far the primary destination for Colombian exports (mostly oil and minerals, but also coffee, flowers and bananas), so Petro could not escalate the conflict further, and migrants will now return to the country on a flight chartered by Colombia. Petro also promised retaliatory tariffs on US imports, which are unlikely to take effect.

Bravado. Both sides portrayed the outcome as a victory, with the White House saying that Colombia agreed to “all of President Trump’s terms,” while Petro said he secured “dignity for deportees” who will “not come in handcuffs.”

• The Colombian president also published a long post in which he accused Trump of seeing him “as an inferior race,” adding that he was willing to be killed like Chile's Salvador Allende rather than “shake hands with white slaveowners.” 

Friends to enemies. Colombia has been one of the US’s closest allies in Latin America for many decades, with both countries’ military forces cooperating in the fight against drug cartels and guerrilla groups since the 1990s. Petro ended a 24-year streak of right-wing governments in Colombia, but still saw eye to eye with the Biden administration on topics such as human rights and climate change. That is not the case with the current White House.

What next. Career diplomats at Colombia’s Foreign Ministry de-escalated the conflict 24 hours after it started, and sanctions could be avoided for the moment. The Colombian peso only lost 0.5% on its first day of trading following the clash, a sign that markets were relatively optimistic about the outcome after a cold sweat throughout the weekend.

• Petro's next move will likely come on Thursday, speaking at an emergency meeting of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) called by Honduran president pro tempore Xiomara Castro, one of the few regional leaders who explicitly backed the Colombian head of state during his face-off with Trump.

🌎 LatAm Report