Alternative presidential candidates seek “magic polling number”

In yesterday's issue, we covered the devastating effects of the Dark Horse scandal on the Flávio Bolsonaro presidential campaign. An audio recording showing the senator from Rio de Janeiro asking a banker at the center of the country's biggest fraud scandal for tens of millions of reais cost him 5 points in first-round polling, per Atlas Intel. In a simulated runoff against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Flávio went from having a slim lead to a 7-point disadvantage.

Today, we would like to turn our attention to other aspects of the Atlas Intel poll.

Besides repeating ad nauseam that polls at this stage, months before Election Day, matter less as predictions than for how they shape the behavior of candidates and parties, we at The Brazilian Report have another mantra: polls are film reels, not snapshots.