🗳 Election Observatory: Jun. 9

— by Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office

Brazil’s 2026 elections are entering a new phase of political definition, marked by the reorganization of coalitions, electoral narratives, and the instruments used to shape public opinion.

Polls released in recent weeks suggest that the impact of revelations tying Senator Flávio Bolsonaro to the corrupt and fraud-ridden Banco Master has gone beyond reputational damage and is now producing tangible effects on the opposition’s political dynamics.

The senator’s loss of competitiveness in runoff projections has reopened discussions about alternative right-wing presidential candidates, with figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and other regional leaders returning to the center of political debate. This has increased uncertainty surrounding the formation of both national and state-level alliances, and what emerged this week was an open contest for leadership within the opposition camp.

This movement is having direct repercussions across Brazil’s states. Governors, political parties and regional leaders are recalibrating their strategies amid the possibility of changes at the heads of presidential tickets. In a federal system that is heavily dependent on territorial coalitions, the definition of state-level alliances is likely to influence both the viability of national candidacies and the formation of future governing majorities.

At the same time, public security has become consolidated as one of the central themes of the pre-campaign period.

The United States’ decision to designate Brazilian criminal groups PCC and CV as terrorist organizations has broadened the debate over organized crime, international cooperation and national sovereignty. The issue reinforces the internationalization of the electoral dispute and highlights how Brazil’s relationship with the United States may influence the campaign.

So far, however, the major political camps have yet to present sufficiently consolidated policy narratives capable of addressing voters’ everyday concerns.

The dispute is also increasingly shifting to the digital sphere. Recent social media monitoring data show a highly polarized debate, but without issues capable of generating sustained mass mobilization. The pro-government camp maintains a relative advantage in online conversations surrounding President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while the Bolsonaro camp continues to absorb the negative effects of the Banco Master scandal. The picture that emerges is of an attentive electorate, though one that remains far from a settled decision regarding 2026.

Finally, the judicial suspension of a poll showing a decline in Flávio Bolsonaro’s support offers yet another sign of the growing judicialization of Brazilian politics. Polling, digital campaigns, technology platforms and disputes over information are increasingly occupying the same space as policy proposals themselves.

Brazil’s election is therefore becoming a simultaneous contest for votes, narratives, international legitimacy and institutional recognition.

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Chief Electoral Justice Nunes Marques issued an injunction suspending an Atlas Intel poll showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro down six points in a hypothetical October runoff against incumbent President Lula. 

The decision takes effect immediately but will be analyzed by the rest of the court on June 9. Atlas Intel must remove all content about that particular poll from its website and social media channels.

Released on May 19, the poll landed days after the leak of an audio recording in which Flávio Bolsonaro asks Daniel Vorcaro — the disgraced banker behind Banco Master — to help fund “Dark Horse,” a biopic about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. 

Flávio's lawyers argued the questionnaire was built to drag him down. Of its 48 questions, eight focused on the Master scandal, and at the end, respondents listened to the Flávio-Vorcaro recording. Atlas defended its methodology, countering that vote intention was recorded and locked before any respondent listened to the audio messages, with no way to revise an answer.

Atlas Intel CEO Andrei Roman pushed back: “Many have tried to attack Atlas Intel's reputation when the results were inconvenient.” 

The case is testament to the growing judicialization of Brazilian politics. Presidential campaigns are bracing for constant litigation at the Superior Electoral Court, certain that in a hyperpolarized environment, every edge could prove decisive.

Evangelical leaders held the March for Jesus on Thursday, now in its 34th year, timed to coincide with Corpus Christi — a Catholic national holiday celebrating the Eucharist. As the evangelical population expands to 27%, according to the latest census, the march has also entrenched itself as a political stage for candidates courting that demographic.

Flávio Bolsonaro, draped in an Israeli flag, sang gospel from a sound truck and told crowds that Brazil is facing a “spiritual war” and that “evil will be expelled from this country's government this year.” 

Lula stayed away, wary of looking like he was mining sacred ground for votes, and sent his solicitor general, Jorge Messias — whose rejected Supreme Court nomination the government now casts as martyrdom. Messias said the event was meant for worship, not politics — but then compared Flávio Bolsonaro to Judas.

Market analysts nudged up their inflation forecasts again, a worrying signal for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government ahead of October's election. The Central Bank's weekly Focus survey put median 2026 inflation at 5.11%, up from 3.9% before the war in Iran broke out. The median forecast has soared in each of the past 12 weeks.

The Central Bank's year-end tolerance band runs from 1.5% to 4.5%. As expectations drift further from it, the possibility of the monetary authority cutting the country's benchmark interest rate, currently at 14.5%, diminishes. It also increases the likelihood that the government will renew an oil export levy aimed at keeping more crude in Brazil — a means to tame fuel prices. The official May inflation will be published on Friday.

The constitutional amendment bill abolishing Brazil's six-day workweek will be debated this week at a meeting of party leaders convened by Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, expected to take place by Wednesday. There is still a lot of uncertainty over how quickly the measure will move through the Senate. 

Having complained that he does not want the upper chamber to act as a mere “rubber stamp,” Alcolumbre will lead the leaders' meeting that will decide the bill's fate. The Senate president has already signaled support only for cutting the workweek from 44 to 40 hours, not necessarily for changing the work schedule itself.

Members of the Lula coalition believe that the bill, supported by more than 70% of voters, will further increase the president's electoral standing.

On the Supreme Court's plenary docket for Wednesday are appeals filed by major tech companies, industry associations and other groups against the court's June 2025 trial that increased platforms’ liability for third-party content.

Last year, the justices decided that companies must work proactively to remove “grave criminal content,” which consists of a list spanning incitement to terrorism, child sexual abuse images, hate speech and attacks on Brazil's democratic institutions.

Facebook, X and others asked for a six-month window to implement the new obligations. Aspects of the liability regime are also being challenged. One request seeks to make the presumption of corporate liability rebuttable rather than absolute in cases of unlawful content in ads and in paid, bot-distributed promotions. A rebuttable presumption would give platforms room to prove they bear no fault for the content posted.