🗳 Election Observatory: May 12

— by Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office

Brazil’s 2026 elections, beyond being a contest between candidates, are increasingly reflecting a broader dispute among the institutions responsible for sustaining the country’s democratic order.

In recent days, Brazil’s executive branch, Congress, and the Supreme Court have shown increasing signs of institutional confrontation. The Senate’s unprecedented rejection of a presidential nominee to the Supreme Court, followed by Congress overriding an executive veto on legislation related to the 2022 coup attempt and the judiciary’s subsequent suspension of the measure, illustrate a political system operating amid growing friction between branches of government.

On the political front, the opposition has suffered significant damage following revelations involving alleged corruption practices linked to one of its main leaders, Senator Ciro Nogueira, who had been considered a possible vice-presidential running mate alongside Flávio Bolsonaro.

At the electoral level, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain in a highly competitive race, though both face structural limits to expanding their support due to high rejection rates.

The international dimension of the election is also becoming more sensitive. The rapprochement between Lula and Donald Trump took place amid trade disputes, diplomatic tensions, and debates over security, strategic mining and technology regulation. At the same time, various political actors are seeking to internationalize their narratives on democracy, freedom of expression and institutional sovereignty, thereby increasing the external exposure of Brazil’s elections.

The Federal Police last week raided addresses linked to Senator Ciro Nogueira as part of its investigation into Banco Master, the liquidated lender at the center of Brazil's largest-ever banking scandal — and which maintained suspiciously close ties to power brokers across all spheres of politics and government.

Investigators say Nogueira received monthly payments from Master's chief executive, Daniel Vorcaro, who also covered the senator’s lavish personal expenses, including international trips. In return, Nogueira allegedly did the now-disgraced banker's bidding in Congress, including introducing a bill to let Master expand exponentially — a proposal drafted by the bank's lawyers and submitted verbatim.

Nogueira is no minor figure. As chairman of the Progressives (PP) party, which has one of the largest benches in Congress, he ranks among Brasília's most influential operators. The senator also served as Jair Bolsonaro's chief of staff and was briefly floated as a potential running mate for Flávio Bolsonaro, the far right's presidential standard-bearer for 2026.

The evidence against him surfaced on Vorcaro's cellphones, which are in the possession of the Federal Police. That he was targeted at all is an ominous signal for other Congress heavyweights.

President Lula on Tuesday launched a new plan to combat organized crime, allocating BRL 1.06 billion across four fronts: money laundering, prison upgrades, arms trafficking and a push to solve murders.

The largest tranche (BRL 388.9 million) targets the financial choke points of criminal networks, tracking money laundering through the Integrated Forces to Combat Organized Crime (FICCOs). But the government's political bet rides on prisons: more than BRL 330 million will upgrade security at 138 facilities nationwide.

Nearly 52% of Brazilians name crime and drug trafficking among the country's biggest problems — down from 63% in November, but still a top concern. Conversely, the economy and inflation are mentioned by only 24% of voters. Public safety ranks among the Lula administration's chief weaknesses in voters' eyes.

Supreme Court Justice Nunes Marques takes office Tuesday as Brazil's chief electoral justice, and is expected to take a markedly different approach than his colleague Alexandre de Moraes, who led the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) during the 2022 vote.

Moraes was hands-on and cracked down hard on electoral misinformation. His detractors say that the TSE was tainted by overreach during Moraes’s spell in charge, tilting the scales in favor of Lula, who won the 2022 election by a narrow margin. Supporters counter that the heavy hand was in response to former President Jair Bolsonaro's openly putschist conduct, which culminated in an Election Day voter-suppression operation and a coup attempt after his defeat.

Beyond attacks on the electoral process itself, Nunes Marques inherits a thornier challenge: deciding on the use of artificial intelligence and deepfakes by campaigns.

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes suspended a law set to slash prison sentences for those convicted of crimes against democracy, including former President Jair Bolsonaro. Moraes issued the order Saturday, holding the law in abeyance until the full court can rule on its constitutionality, the subject of two pending challenges.

According to the law, Bolsonaro would be able to progress to a less restrictive custody regime in just 2 years and 4 months, as opposed to an estimated 6 to 8 years. Last September, he was sentenced to 27 years in prison for leading a coup attempt.

Congress passed the sentence-altering legislation last year, and Lula vetoed it in full. Lawmakers overrode him on April 30, in a stinging defeat for the government. In response to Moraes's order (which some legal scholars have criticized), the far-right caucus is now pushing for an outright amnesty bill.

Lula met with Donald Trump last week in what was described as a positive encounter for both sides. There was no grand agreement or development to announce, but the Brazilian president returned home portraying the sit-down as proof that Brazil and the US can rebuild a functional relationship after months of tensions over trade, democracy and Jair Bolsonaro. Trump, meanwhile, praised Lula as “very dynamic” and called the discussions “very positive.”

After a series of embarrassing defeats in Congress, the Trump encounter was exactly what Lula needed to regain standing: a photo-op, a handshake, a smile, a positive news story and a clear signal that good relations with the US do not depend on a Bolsonaro being in the Brazilian president’s office.

The Brazilian Report’s Gustavo Ribeiro sat down with historian James N. Green to unpack the meeting’s consequences for the president, analyzing how it played at home and abroad.Listen to that conversation here.

Journalism and democracy are inseparable — and right now, both are under threat. A free press is not a luxury; it is the infrastructure of accountable governance, and when it weakens, so does everything else. That is why your support matters. 

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