🗳 Election Observatory: Jul. 21

— by Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office

The week's most consequential political maneuvering is happening on the far right. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, weighed down by the lingering Banco Master scandal, quarrels within his own family and the fallout from US tariffs on Brazilian exports, faces growing doubts about whether he can carry the opposition competitively through October. The uncertainty is already scrambling party calculations as conventions open amid bitter disputes in several states.

The conservative camp is also courting allies abroad. President Javier Milei of Argentina is traveling to Brazil to attend the Liberal Party convention and to meet Gov. Tarcísio de Freitas of São Paulo, part of a broader effort to knit together a network of right-wing leaders across South America. Milei's visit is a reminder that Freitas remains one of the Bolsonaro movement's most valuable assets, all the more so as Bolsonaro's troubles mount.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, for his part, has built his strategy around defending Brazilian sovereignty and pointing to recent economic figures, betting that his response to Washington's measures can be converted into political advantage at home.

The coming weeks will show whether the Brazilian right can settle on a leader or whether it will enter the campaign more divided than expected. Polls aside, the conventions themselves may turn out to be among the most important forces shaping the 2026 race.

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After a year-long investigation, the US Trade Representative confirmed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods effective July 22, covering 18% to 21% of Brazilian exports depending on the estimate. Brasília announced a relief program for exposed companies and threatened to trigger the Reciprocity Law, which authorizes countermeasures.

The bark faded fast. The government will not retaliate unless it is confident the move will not stoke inflation at home — a calculation that leaves Brazil's chief legal weapon holstered for the time being.

Foreign policy now occupies a place in the presidential race it has never held, and the announcement drew responses along predictable lines. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva blamed the Bolsonaro family's lobbying in Washington, reminding voters the family sought US sanctions and tariffs to force the Supreme Court to drop the case against Jair Bolsonaro, convicted last year for staging a coup. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, his strongest challenger, called Lula incompetent for failing to avert the tariffs. Candidates polling behind blamed both.

After Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Brazil of never negotiating in good faith, Brasília made some of the terms on the table public, arguing Washington wanted capitulation — conditions no country of Brazil's size and weight could accept.

Party conventions opened Monday, and until they conclude nobody in Brazil is legally a candidate. That includes the presidency, alongside governorships, Senate seats, the House and state legislatures. Nomination happens at the convention, and parties set their own terms: in person, virtual or hybrid, decided by a floor vote or by a handful of leaders. 

The Superior Electoral Court sets the guardrails: attendance lists and minutes must be published on its site, and parties must register their governing bodies with the relevant Regional Electoral Court. The deadline is August 5, and the campaign officially begins

Coalitions are permitted only for majoritarian offices: president, governor and senator, with two Senate seats per state on the ballot. Legislative races, decided proportionally, cannot be run in coalition. 

Renan Santos, the right-wing firebrand, was due to be nominated on August 1, but his party, Mission, moved its convention up to Monday, citing security concerns. Santos says criminal groups have threatened him, and presidential candidate status entitles him to a Federal Police detail. The other major candidates' conventions:

Kassio Nunes Marques, Brazil's chief electoral justice, defended the creation of accuracy seals for pollsters whose final numbers land closest to the result. The badge would apply in general election years and only to exit polls and surveys released within a week of the vote.

Pollsters revolted. "Surveys aren't predicting the future nor issuing promises," the Brazilian Association of Research Companies said. "Between the interview and the voting, people can change their opinions." A cynic would note that pollsters want it both ways: when the numbers match the result, they advertise it. Newer firms in the industry backed the idea.

This is not Marques's first run-in with pollsters. In June, he barred Atlas Intel from publishing a May 19 poll on voters' views of Flávio Bolsonaro's ties to the Banco Master scandal. The problem: Atlas had respondents listen to recordings of Flávio asking Master's former chief executive for money. The pollster defended the method, saying the audio came only after respondents had named their candidate, and was meant to gauge how voters reacted once they learned of the scandal.

Discrediting pollsters is standard Bolsonaro practice, deployed hardest when the family is losing — and Flávio trails in every survey. More recently, Flávio contested Quaest numbers putting him 8 points behind Lula in a simulated runoff.

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) signed cooperation agreements on July 16 with TikTok, Google, OpenAI and other platforms, extending a framework approved earlier this year on the use of AI by candidates.

The core provision is a blackout on AI-generated content, from 72 hours before election day to 24 hours after polls close. Chief Electoral Justice Kassio Nunes Marques flagged the measure at a June 16 event The Brazilian Report held with foreign diplomats. Outside that window, platforms must label synthetic media, enforce their own policies and build tools to detect coordinated bot activity.

The deal is only voluntary, and platforms have historically done little to stop anyone from firehosing public discourse with falsehoods. Marques, meanwhile, is seen as hands-off on content moderation — unlike Alexandre de Moraes, who ran the electoral court during the 2022 campaign and moved aggressively to force platforms to take down what he deemed disinformation.

Former Supreme Court Justice Joaquim Barbosa has abandoned his presidential bid, starved of funds by Christian Democracy, the party he joined in April. His allies saw him as the only credible alternative to the Lula-Bolsonaro duopoly, able to draw voters from both sides. Barbosa gained popularity as rapporteur of the 2012 Mensalão trial, the largest corruption case in Brazilian history, which sent several political heavyweights to prison. 

After leaving the Supreme Court in 2014, he weighed a presidential run in 2018, polling around 10% at one point but never committing.