💸 More money, less credit

The Brazilian government rolled out the 2026/27 Harvest Plan last week with the number it wanted in the headlines: BRL 525.1 billion (USD 101.1b) in credit for commercial agriculture, a record. Officials gathered at the presidential palace to unveil lower interest rates across nearly every financing line, with the lowest at 8% a year. 

The headline figure conceals more than it shows. It is up just 1.7% from the previous cycle's BRL 516.2 billion. Deflated by the IGP-DI — a benchmark wholesale-weighted price index, up 2.53% in the 12 months to May — FGV's Center for Agribusiness Studies calculates a real contraction of…

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