🗳 Election Observatory: May 19

— by Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office

Brazil’s 2026 elections are entering a new phase marked by the growing vulnerability of the leading candidates amid scandals, high rejection rates and electoral volatility. The race remains competitive, but it is becoming increasingly unstable and sensitive to short-term political shocks. 

The revelations involving Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and the Banco Master scandal represent the first major crisis of his presidential pre-campaign. (According to Brazilian electoral law, campaigning by candidates may only begin on August 16, 2026). 

After months of rising in the polls without significant public scrutiny of his proposals or broader debate exposure, Flávio — former President Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son — now faces questions regarding political financing, ties to business groups under investigation, and possible indirect connections to wider corruption and money-laundering networks. 

The case also increases pressure on the Bolsonaro family’s political circle and reinforces the ongoing involvement of the courts in the electoral dispute.

The political impact of the episode comes at a particularly delicate moment for the opposition. Recent polls had already pointed to signs of recovery for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, driven by a more active economic agenda, announcements aimed at addressing cost-of-living concerns, and a relatively improved political environment following his diplomatic rapprochement with Donald Trump. Although the presidential race remains technically tied, the episode reinforces the central roles of rejection and public trust as decisive factors in the election.

At the same time, the possibility of replacing candidacies has returned to the center of political maneuvering. Sectors of the right have begun privately discussing the possibility of Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, replacing Flávio in the presidential race, while the potential entry of Joaquim Barbosa into the race signals attempts to build a more institutional and moderate alternative amid persistent polarization. Barbosa is a retired Supreme Court justice and was the first black person to serve on the country’s highest court. 

The institutional dimension of the election is also deepening. The Federal Police operation involving former Rio de Janeiro Governor Cláudio Castro reinforces the perception that corruption, organized crime, political financing and electoral disputes will remain deeply intertwined throughout the campaign. In this environment, judicial investigations and scandals increasingly shape political alliances and the electoral viability of different candidacies.

Brazil’s 2026 election is becoming a contest defined not only by ideological polarization, but also by the growing political fragility of the candidates themselves. In a scenario marked by high rejection rates, unstable public trust and recurring crises, the ability to survive politically may become just as important as the ability to win electorally.

After rising spectacularly in the presidential polls without having to expose his proposals to public scrutiny, far-right candidate Senator Flávio Bolsonaro now finds himself on the defensive for the first time since announcing his bid to challenge President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October. The reason: the revelation that he solicited money from Daniel Vorcaro, the former CEO at Banco Master, a liquidated lender at the center of a massive fraud and corruption scandal.

According to The Intercept Brasil, at least USD 10.6 million changed hands.

Flávio claims the money was used solely to pay for “Dark Horse,” a hagiographic biopic about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, starring Jim Caviezel (The Passion of the Christ). However, the Federal Police will now investigate whether the money was used to bankroll the living expenses of Flávio's brother, former Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, who is listed among the producers of “Dark Horse.”

Eduardo moved to the US a year ago to lobby the Trump administration to take action against Brazil and Brazilian authorities as retribution for the trial of his father, convicted in September for attempting a coup. His actions are under investigation at the Supreme Court. The fact that Flávio solicited the money could drag him into the inquiry, too.

The Master revelations couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Flávio Bolsonaro camp. The press cycle was dominated by his scandal at a moment when President Lula was already improving his standing in the polls — thanks to a more positive news cycle, including a productive meeting with Donald Trump and the announcement of multiple programs to tackle the public safety and purchasing power issues.

Per Quaest, Lula's net personal approval rating went from -9 points to -3 in the last month, a six-point swing. His approval rose to 46%, while disapproval fell to 49%. The potential Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro runoff remains a statistical tie — but this time with Lula numerically ahead (42-41). Per Datafolha, the president's approval ticked up a point to 30%, and he is tied with Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff (45% each). 

Crucially, both Quaest and Datafolha polled voters before the Flávio-Vorcaro revelations, so we still have to wait for the next surveys to measure the case's impact. Some campaign internal polls (whose numbers we can't legally disclose in full) show Lula ahead by as much as 7 points.

Brazil's small Christian Democracy (DC) party said this weekend it will run former Supreme Court Justice Joaquim Barbosa for president. The first black justice in the history of Brazil's top court, Barbosa rose to prominence as the rapporteur of the Mensalão trial — the landmark case that exposed how the first Lula administration funneled public money through corrupt allied firms to bribe lawmakers and manufacture a congressional majority. 

Barbosa has flirted with a presidential run before — most notably in 2018, when he joined the PSB and polled around 10% before walking away ahead of the party convention, and again in 2022, when he ended up dropping out to endorse Lula. The DC party is wagering that a new institutional crisis will keep him in the race this time, but Barbosa said he will only run if the polls show he has a chance at winning, and if he has significant campaign infrastructure at his disposal.

Aldo Rebelo, who was the DC's candidate until last week, said he is ready to go to court in order to stay on the ticket.

Soon after Flávio Bolsonaro's ties to Master became public, power brokers on the Brazilian far right began arguing privately that he should be replaced by Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, who is expected to run for a Senate seat representing Brasília. Flávio has shot down these suggestions — Michelle is not on speaking terms with Jair Bolsonaro's politician sons — saying he is "more motivated than ever" to run. Datafolha and Atlas Intel are set to release new polls this week, both testing Michelle's competitiveness. The results could ramp up pressure on the Flávio Bolsonaro campaign.

Federal Police raided the Rio de Janeiro home of former Governor Cláudio Castro on Friday as part of a sweeping investigation into oil refinery Refit, Brazil's largest tax debtor, which owes more than BRL 26 billion (USD 5.12 billion) to federal authorities. 

Investigators say Refit illegally imported nearly finished gasoline as raw material to erase most of its tax bill, among other wrongdoings. They allege that Castro, while in office, sought to create tax advantages for Refit and fired a finance secretary and a state prosecutor who resisted refinancing Refit's BRL 13 billion debt to Rio state. 

The case intersects with the Banco Master scandal and money-laundering networks tied to the PCC and the CV, Brazil's two main criminal syndicates — a Senate inquiry recently flagged more than BRL 1 billion in suspicious transactions between Refit and Master.

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