💣 Pensions time bomb

Census data shows that the share of Brazil’s population aged 65 and older rose from 4% in 1980 to more than 10% in 2022. Over the same period, children aged 14 and under went from making up around 40% of the population to just under 20%. The country’s elderly index — the ratio between senior citizens and minors — climbed from 31 to 55 between the 2010 and 2022 censuses.

Researchers estimate that Brazil has until the mid-2030s to reap its demographic dividend, the period during which the working-age population grows faster than the country’s dependents. Moreover, as has been the case in richer nations, the aging trend poses steep challenges for public pensions.

Brazil’s case is particularly acute, as its demographic transition is…

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