🧭 Diplomatic tightrope

IN THIS ISSUE

• Lula will go to Russia and China in May

• A social security corruption scheme sends shockwaves through the government

• Correios launches last-ditch modernization plan

Lula confirms visit to Russia and China

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will embark on state visits to Russia and China in May, the country’s Foreign Affairs Ministry confirmed Wednesday, underscoring his continued push for a more assertive Brazilian role on the global stage.

Save the dates. Lula is scheduled to attend Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9, marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany. He will also take part in a summit between China and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) on May 12 and 13, alongside President Xi Jinping.

Driving the news. This will be Lula’s first visit to Russia during his third term, after he missed the 2024 BRICS Summit due to a head injury. It will also mark his second official visit to China since returning to power in 2023. Both visits come ahead of this year’s BRICS Summit, to be held in Rio de Janeiro in July.

👉 Why it matters. The visit to Moscow follows renewed talks between Russia and Ukraine, sponsored by the Donald Trump White House, which have sidelined earlier peace negotiations that Brazil, China and others had tried to advance. 

• The American-backed proposal, widely seen as favoring Russia, has stirred concern among Ukrainian officials and Western allies.

Delicate peace. Last month, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, told a Brazilian newspaper that Kyiv hoped Brazil would use its ties with Moscow to push for more balanced negotiations.

Yes, but … Lula’s participation in Victory Day — an event expected to showcase Russian military strength amid its ongoing war in Ukraine — carries diplomatic risk. The European Union has warned leaders of bloc members such as Slovakia and candidate countries like Serbia against attending. Lula’s presence may therefore be interpreted as tacit approval of Moscow’s current posture (the Brazilian president has given pro-Russia signals since before he took office).

Next stop. In contrast, Lula’s visit to Beijing is expected to focus on trade and investment. His chief of staff, Rui Costa, is traveling to China this weekend to prepare agreements ahead of the president’s arrival.

• During their last meeting in Brazil during the 2024 G20 Summit, Lula and Xi signed a raft of deals and committed to coordinating Brazil’s new infrastructure plan (the so-called Growth Acceleration Program) with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

South American integration. Chinese delegations have visited Brazil in recent years to advance discussions over an ambitious transcontinental railway linking the northeastern Brazilian port of Ilhéus to Peru’s Chancay megaport, led by the Chinese state-owned Cosco Shipping. 

• While construction on the Brazilian side is underway, the project’s most challenging stretch — traversing the Andes — remains in the planning phase.

• The railway is part of a broader push by Lula to deepen South American integration. This week, during Chilean President Gabriel Boric’s visit to Brasília, new details emerged about a separate corridor linking Brazil to Chile.

China factor. The CELAC-China summit in May comes as Beijing refines its diplomatic overtures to Latin America, distinguishing itself from Washington’s more confrontational tone, said Maurício Santoro, a political scientist and fellow at Brazil’s Naval War College.

• Documents made public by the 2023 “Discord Leaks” — an alleged leak of classified US intelligence — exposed Washington’s concerns about China’s growing influence in Latin America both with left- and right-leaning governments.

Global role. In a context of an escalating US-China rivalry, Brazil has tried to present itself as a neutral actor. At the same time, it is expanding trade with China and other BRICS partners to reduce exposure to new US tariffs.

• Santoro described the moment as a high point in Sino-Brazilian relations since Brazil first established diplomatic ties with China in the 1970s. “We’ve never seen such diversified investments or a higher level of political engagement between the two governments,” he said.

Serendipity. Lula and Xi, he added, share an unusual historical alignment: “They are the most influential politicians of their generation in Brazil and China — and for the first time, their presidencies are overlapping.”

Asia. Lula’s visit to China will follow Lula’s recent Asian tour that made stops in Japan and Vietnam — part of a broader strategic tilt toward Asia, which now buys more than 40% of Brazil’s exports. “There is growing interest in strengthening ties with other Asian economies, both longstanding partners and rising markets.”

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