Transcript 0:00 [upbeat music] Hello and welcome to the Explaining Brazil podcast. My name is Gustavo Ribeiro. I'm the editor-in-chief of the Brazilian Report. Uh, 0:18 the Explaining Brazil podcast that we're, we're doing in partnership with the Brazil Office Alliance in this pre-electoral season. 0:26 And as usual, I'm very glad to welcome James Green, professor at Brown University and chairman of the board at the Washington Brazil office. James, how are you doing? I'm great. Thank you. Um, it's great to see you. 0:39 I just arrived in New York yesterday for five weeks, and then, uh, enjoying the hot humid in- weather of the city. So, uh, speaking of, uh, of, uh, w- uh, 0:52 heated things, uh, let's talk about Brazil-US relations because we got yet another interesting and baffling episode in this unraveling relationship, uh, this week. 1:05 On Tuesday, the US State Department revoked the visa of Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, Brazil's ambassador to Washington. Uh, and then it rushed to explain that she was not being expelled per se. 1:19 She may stay in the country, she may still act as, uh, Brazil's top diplomat in the United States, but, uh, if she leaves the US, she would be unable to return to the country, which is, uh, an extremely odd, uh, situation, to say the very least. 1:39 And, uh, the reasoning behind it was openly transactional. 1:43 Uh, the State Department said that, uh, it is, uh, a retaliation because Brazil is, uh, holding off the agrément to Daniel Perez, uh, Florida Republican nominated by Trump in June and, uh, a MAGA supporter. 2:01 Um, if Brazil grants him his agrément, Viotti's visa would come back. What, what do you say, uh, James? 2:10 You know, why am I not surprised that something very stupid and incompetent is coming from the Trump administration on this matter? 2:16 But I think the more serious thing is this is a- an example of an escalation, and there are clearly forces within the Trump administration or tr- or, or really seeking to create a rift between the two countries to use this, I think, as a justification for questioning the results of the elections in October. 2:32 Uh, and so, you know, not following any procedures, traditional procedures in negotiating with the country before a- an ambassador has been, uh, in- indicated. 2:42 The, the, the fact that he has not been approved by the full Senate, uh, means that, you know, it's not even a done deal yet because the full Senate might decide not to support him. 2:50 Even it was just-- it was he went through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. 2:54 So it's really, I think it's just another, uh, step in the direction of, of trying to totally isolate Brazil and then justify, um, some kind of more egregious intervention or positioning o- on the part of the United States as the, as the election approaches. 3:10 No, and one thing that is interesting, so for people who are not, uh, 3:14 that knowledgeable about how these things usually work, uh, usually a country will tell reservedly, uh, its partner country, "Look, we're, uh, looking to name so and so to the ambassadorship." 3:28 And then also behind the scenes, that country will give the agrément, which is, uh, uh, the, the green light for that person to be named, uh, uh, the, the acceptance to its nomination and, uh, to the fact that this person is going to come and be the liaison between the host country and, uh, the other country. 3:48 Uh, the US did not do that by the standard rules. It announced publicly way, uh, before it ever said anything to the Brazilian government, so that already pissed many people in Brazil off. 4:01 Uh, and what I've heard in Brazil is that, uh, the agrément would come, that, uh, the Brazilian government, uh, regardless of Perez's profile, it wanted an ambassador in Brazil because there are things that, uh, the relationship with the chargé d'affaires just doesn't cut it. 4:20 It, it, it takes an ambassador to ch- bring relations to the next level. 4:25 And if that person is close to the president, that is even better because that allows both sides to talk behind the scenes and know each other's red lines and, uh, and I mean, it, it makes the conversation more fluid. 4:41 However, that agrément would not come before the election because there is a perception, and I think that, uh, it's not, uh, an unwise perception in Brazil that, well, since January 2025, the US has, uh, not had an ambassador in, in Brazil, and now it's rushing to name one, uh, just in time for the election. 5:08 And the Brazilian officials are seeing this as a major red flag that, like you said, this is all part of, um, of a scheme to not accept the electoral results in Brazil or try to interfere in any way, shape, or form. 5:23 And, and the fact that they, uh, that they were sending two State Department members who are-- were gonna come and investigate the situation in Brazil and possibly look, you know, c- come back with a report saying that you can't trust the voting, uh, machines, you can't trust the process, it's all stacked against, uh, the opposition to the current president. 5:41 All that, you know, is, is clearly a part of this plan. And as you pointed out, you know, take a year and a half to appoint someone, all of a sudden you, you have to rush the next day to make that happen. 5:50 There was no rush at 25 to have an, an ambassador. They could care less. 5:54 It's really a part of a very systematic plan on the part of the administration to do everything possible to weaken, um, the electoral possibilities of, of, of Lula so that he might lose or if he, in fact, wins the election to then claim that the results were, were fraudulent. 6:10 And, you know, in talking informally to many, many, um, people in Brazil, l- Last time I was there, it's really clear that there is a very strong sentiment among Bolsonaro supporters to believe that you can't trust the electoral system in Brazil. 6:25 You can't trust the electronic, uh, voting, uh, booths or the machines that they use, which is, I think, uh, just outrageous, but it circulates as a given. 6:33 It's a fake news story that is, is deeply embedded in, in discussions within the far right. 6:38 So there is a base in, in the country to, to insist on this, which obviously the US government and Flavio Bolsonaro are, are, are, are playing to this base at this point. 6:51 No, and the one thing that is interesting is that, uh, what the US is doing is that it is making it politically impossible for Lula to give his agreement now, because then it would read as weakness. 7:07 So actually, those escalating measures, they're just, uh, uh, pushing the relationship to a point where any reset becomes way more politically costly for both sides. Right. 7:22 And that's- Because then you're, you're chickening out. No, and that's the intention. I think the intention is to cause a rupture. Ca- cause a rupture to say we don't trust this government, it's an extremist government. 7:32 It's, uh, you know, the whole, uh, issue of claiming it's organized crime in Brazil or terrorist organizations is another part of this process. 7:39 The fact that the in- outrageously, uh, inappropriate, uh, new tariffs on the country, which make no sense at all based on what was allowed and what was not allowed to be exempt from the tariffs. All of it. 7:51 It's just a really, uh, it's a, it's an escalating, uh, situation, and I think that, uh, it's, it's, it, it's, it's really important that people be aware of this because I think much m- more is gonna happen, uh, in the, in the next m- two months, uh, as the, as the October, uh, election day, uh, approaches. 8:09 It's very, it's very worries- worrisome to me. I'm, I'm very concerned. Although all indications in recent polls are that Lula is gonna handily win. 8:17 Um, maybe not, it'll, maybe it'll be tighter in the second round, but that he, he's well ahead in the po- polls. And I think all of this is actually backfired. I wouldn't say well ahead. 8:25 I would say- Well, it wasn't the poll-... slightly ahead. Didn't the Quest poll, the, just Quest poll yesterday put him at nine points? Am I wrong about that or? 8:33 In the first round, but in the second round, the, the gap closed a little bit. So it's, it's- And, and I took it... Yeah. 8:40 No, and, and I'm sorry, just to, to, to that point, but I, I think it's hard at this point to know exactly where we stand in the race because, uh, last week was a week that was quite positive for Flavio Bolsonaro. 8:53 He launched his candidacy in a formal way, so that gives anyone a push and some sort of momentum. 9:00 There was the fact that the president's son, uh, Fabio Luis, known as Lulinha, uh, became the target of three influence peddling investigations. So you can r- It's a Rorschach test. 9:14 You can read as, despite all this, Lula remains slightly ahead or that we, we are in that scenario where, uh, things are gonna get way more volatile, volatile from now on, and it's, it's hard to grasp, uh, uh, the, the real state of the race. 9:33 No, I, I agree with you that I think, first of all, I agree with you that there will be a wi- a wi- If Lula does in fact, uh, outvote, uh, Flavio in the first round, assuming the dy- the dynamics and co- it's gonna be much closer to the second round. 9:45 It could be as close as one and a half points, which is the concern I have because in that, that kind of a close election, you know, you can make an argument, uh, even though it's a false argument about polls. 9:56 But I think also, you know, uh, I'm not sure how much Flavio, uh, really gained by his convention. 10:03 I mean, on one ha- on one hand, you know, Milei was there, and that might have been really exciting to certain people in, in his base of support. 10:10 I don't think that it really makes a big difference for most Brazilians who are not really paying attention, but it certainly didn't make him look good. 10:16 And the other thing which I'm finding interesting, again, in my conversations with people who openly say that they're Bolsonaro supporters, they're not, they're not, they don't like Trump. 10:25 Many of them just don't like Trump. They think Trump is kind of off his rockers. 10:28 And so I don't know how much it helps Flavio's argument that he's really close to the White House and that he's gonna solve all their problems because they kind of look at the White House as kind of crazy. 10:37 Um, you know, again, I don't know how we can quantify this and, and what effect this will eventually have on the final results because as you're right, in the first round, uh, there are several right, far right candidates that will be, be taking votes away from Flavio, and then the tendency in the second round will be for those votes to either, uh, disappear or to concentrate within the far right candidate. 10:58 And, uh, and that could make the, the final results quite, quite tight indeed. 11:04 No, and, uh, you mentioned Milei, and, uh, I, I want to bring this into our conversation because bad things happens in three-- bad things happen in three, right? 11:14 And, uh, Brazil not only is going through a rough patch in its relationship with the US, but also with two very close neighbors, Paraguay and, uh, Argentina. And in the Argentinian case is the, the greatest one. 11:28 Uh, Brazil downgraded bilateral relations to the chargee d'affaires level and, uh, will keep its ambassador to Buenos Aires in Brasilia, uh, and told the Argentinian ambassador that it will no longer deal with him. 11:43 Uh, and that comes after a series of, uh, disparaging comments made by Javier Milei, some of them on Brazilian soil, so he was, uh, calling Lula a thief, a convict, a socialist trash. 11:57 He, uh, described the Supreme Court justice as bald trash. Uh, and he kept on saying that after he went back to Argentina. Um, at, at one point, uh, 12:11 Brazilian diplomats said this is absolutely not the behavior of a head of state because Brazil, despite the personal differences between Lula and Milei, was keeping the relationship intact. 12:24 Uh, but The Argentinian ambassador in Brazil is a career, uh, diplomat, so it's, it, it was possible to keep the, the diplomatic relationship untouched. But now, uh, he has, uh, he, he has napalmed that bridge. 12:41 [laughs] No, and listen, uh, this is again another provocation, and it's à la Trump. 12:44 It's a, it's an imitation of Trump, just as the, you know, Milei had his chainsaw and Elon Musk borrowed that, uh, that, uh, that symbolism. Uh, Milei is playing the Trump card. 12:55 Uh, and you know, chaos and confusion and saying outrageous things that are totally inappropriate and getting away with it. 13:01 And I think to the credit of the Ministry of Foreign Relations, Mauro Vieira, which is, I think quite, quite cool-headed in this whole situation. It's very complex kind of game- Yeah... 13:09 that they're having to play, and they're trying to maintain a very long-term principled position of independence of, of, in, in foreign policy and kind of a neutrality to the extent possible on one hand, and on the other hand, um, you know, tr- trying to follow the rules. 13:26 You know, the way, the way diplom- diplomacy is supposed to, to play out, which is obviously something that Trump ignores and doesn't care about at all, and Milei clearly is in the same camp. 13:36 And that's, and that's the, the danger of all this is this is part of a, an, a, a desire by Marco Rubio and the State Department and, and to Trump to the extent he, he pays attention, to really, um, mobilize and to build this f- far right, um, kind of coalition of governments that have come to power in recent years, um, as a, as a block against Brazil, and then, and I think against, uh, Mexico, and then finally, uh, to attempt to, um, bring down the, the Cuban state. 14:02 So it's a, it's a, it's a very crucial moment, and I think Brazil is, is, is trying to... 14:08 Foreign relation- Minister of Foreign Relations is trying to do the right thing within a very, very aggressive, um, posture by the United States and, and by Argentina. Now, uh, to your Rubio point. 14:20 So I said bad things come in threes. Uh, then the third problem is Brazil's, uh, relationship with Paraguay, and that's on Brazil. Like, uh, the, the US is US provocation. Argentina is Milei's provocation. 14:34 But the US was, uh, Lula putting his foot in his mouth and, uh, during the defense event saying that Brazil should invest more in defense because l- we shouldn't forget that once Paraguay invaded Brazil, which is factually true. 14:51 Uh, but it actually pours salt on a very open wound for the Paraguayans. So, uh, in the 19th century, Paraguay went to war against the alliance made by Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina, and, uh, 15:08 that war escalated to the point of total war, where the, uh, on one side, the Paraguayan dictator wouldn't surrender, and on the other side, the Brazilian emperor said that the war wouldn't end until he was caught or killed. 15:24 And that led to the Paraguayan male population being decimated. Uh, it is a, a big, uh, trauma to the Paraguayan people, so it was, uh, an unforced error by Lula. Um, 15:41 and but, but to your Rubio point, and this is something that I, I found very interesting that nobody's, has talked about. 15:49 But on the same day that Brazil revoked, uh, that the US revoked the Brazilian ambassador's visa, uh, Rubio spoke to the Paraguayan president. 15:59 He hosted the Paraguayan vice president when the US and Paraguay, uh, signed a nuclear energy cooperation agreement. 16:09 And, uh, it is quite interesting that Brazil is, uh, Brazil's relationship with some of its neighbors are getting rockier at the same moment when the US's relationship with those same neighbors is getting tighter. 16:27 And it's no accident. This is really a part of a strategy. 16:30 I mean, it's very clear that this is what, you know, Rubio and other people in the State Department and other advisors that are not in the State Department see about the situation follow Latin America. 16:39 And I think, um, unfortunately, I'm not sure that, um, voices in the United States, uh, in the Democratic Party are fully aware of this. 16:47 I think, uh, you know, there's always been this problem of people really not paying lots of attention to Latin America, which some could argue is good, but other... 16:56 I would argue that it's bad because, uh, uh, diplomats make very bad mistakes as a result of that. 17:01 The, the way the United States misunderstood what was happening in, in, in early '60s in Brazil led to the military coup d'état, coup and 21 years of authoritarian regime. 17:09 And it was, and largely because the United States just was in a, in a, in a, capable of reading the reality o- on the ground and, and was misled by Cold War frameworks. And the, the same today. 17:20 I think there's a framework that Trumpy, Trump has e- established. It's a very strange one. 17:25 It's a notion that the United States has the right to intervene in Latin America and have dominance and be the hegemonic power, and, uh, and includes things like saying, "Well, we might as well have Canada and Greenland as well and control the entire Western Hemisphere, or at least the, uh, the Americas." 17:40 So it's, it's, it's something very, very, uh, worrisome. 17:44 And, uh, and un- unfortunately, I think we're, we're still in a wave of, of authoritarian governments and power in Latin America, which, or democratic authoritarian governments, which is not, is not a good sign for 17:56 people who want to see strong democratic institutions established throughout the, throughout the region. Now, one thing that 18:03 is, uh, baffling about all this is that the, the possibility of this backfiring is immense because that provokes the Brazilian establishment to stand its ground. Right. 18:18 And, uh, I was talking to a Supreme Court justice this week, and this person was telling me, uh, if, uh- If we sniff that, uh, the US is giving money for the campaign of 18:37 candidate, that is, uh, a grounds for, uh, impeding that this person runs, that the party... Because it goes directly against the constitution- Right... in its Article 17 and 18 that, uh, talks about 18:52 political parties, that, uh, political parties must abide by the standards of national sovereignty and by, must in no means have any support from foreign entities and governments. 19:06 So, a- and the Brazilian Supreme Court has already shown that it is willing to stand its ground, whether we're talking about attacks from Trump or the Bolsonaro family. 19:16 So I think that, uh, this is a, a warning shot from the Supreme Court saying, "Watch out because you may be digging your own grave in, uh, aligning yourself to the US-" I, but it- "... to Bolsonaro." 19:29 You know, it, it, they, that's a very important point that you're making and the, the United States can certainly ignore that as well and I, and I have no idea of what their exact plans are and what they're actually implementing right now. 19:39 But I think it's very clear they're gonna go to the edge of not overtly endorsing, um, Flavio Bolsonaro. 19:46 I think Trump is gonna i- in some way say that, whether it's not explicit, it might, it will be implicit as a way of, you know, sending a message, um, which, you know, will cause international tension. 19:57 And you're right, it's gonna backfire to a certain extent. There's a sector of the society which is not happy about Lula's government, but they're not happy about Flavio and they're not gonna... 20:05 They're gonna either stand out the election and not participate, or they're gonna throw their f- ultimate support, uh, to Lula because he's a known entity, he's a stable entity, and I don't think that's... 20:14 I mean, Flavio is not. And the way Flavio has responded to some of the crisis within, within, you know, his family is an indication that he's not as reliable. 20:23 I think there's another perception also that he's just not as experienced, that, you know, what did he do when he was in, uh, in, in politics all these years? 20:30 And that was the argument made about his father as well, but I, I think there is essentially he's too young and, and immature and again, that's not gonna prevent his base of support from supporting him, but I think it might demoralize those people in, instead of really mobilizing they might just, you know, go and vote and, and then 20:50 l- let it be that. So we'll see. I mean, it's, it's gonna be a very exciting two months, and I think as w- you wanted to talk a little bit about the, um, the vice presidential candidate for, for Flavio. 21:00 I think it's, again, there, he's in a, he's in a lot of trouble. Why don't you expl- set that up? Actually before we do that, I just want to address something, uh, and I want to hear to your opinion. 21:10 Because talking to people from the US side, uh, there is a sentiment that, uh, e- and even with people that personally do not agree with, uh, Trump's move, but what they say is, "Well, there is a double standard from Brazil because Lula endorsed Biden, then endorsed Kamala. 21:31 Uh, he visited Cristina Kirchner when he went to Argentina. So if Lula does it, it's solidarity. If anyone else does it to Brazil, it's interference." 21:42 Uh, I think i- it's a valid point, even if I don't think that, uh, what Lula did, uh, uh, has the same weight that, of what the US is trying to do. But, uh, but I do think there's a point there. 21:55 Uh, uh- But look, that's, listen- Lula loves talking about other countries' issues. 21:59 [laughs] Yeah, he did, but he di- he also didn't try to carry out a tariff war against the United States or try to disrupt the American economy or boycott the sale of, of beef or orange juice during Biden's administration to cause prices to, to go even higher. 22:13 So I, it's, I think it's just one thing is, is saying, "I have a preference for a certain candidate. I'd rather have this person in power than this person in power." 22:21 And the other thing is actually carrying out a very overt campaign and that's what, that's what, that's what Flavio and Eduardo have done. 22:26 And I think that's the big- No, I totally agree with you, but I just think that, uh, when Lula says anything that goes through his mind, he opens a flank for false equivalences. 22:37 Absolutely, and I think that's, you know, that's a, that's always been a challenge, uh, in Lula governance because he does speak sometimes, uh, his mind and then doesn't think through what that means, the implications of that. 22:48 So we'll see what happens. 22:50 But again, I think, I think, um, I think the, because Trump is so disrespected so much, and even in Brazil among the far right to a certain extent, um, I'm, I, I think the appro- the, the, the ways in which Flavio is gonna try to embrace the, Trump, and especially even though the results of the American elections are gonna be a week after the second round, uh, 10 days after the second round in Brazil, so there's not gonna be a, a, a cause and effect that things go bad for Trump, people will see that in Brazil. 23:21 But I think it's really th- this, this embracing of the United States and of Trumpian politics is, is I think is not settling well in Brazil. That's my impression. It could be wrong. 23:31 We'll see as, as, uh, opinion polls come out and as the election campaign heats up. And speaking of the campaign, so Flavio Bolsonaro on Wednesday, August the 5th, announced his vice presidential nominee. 23:48 And, uh, he spent months saying that he wanted a woman as running mate because he has a problem with female voters. 23:56 Uh, if it were an evangelical northeastern woman, even better, and he ended up with a man who is battling statutory rape accusations. [laughs] Uh, Congressman Alfredo Gaspar from Alagoas. 24:12 Why am I not surprised? I mean, this is again another pattern. Uh, and, uh, if we follow the US elections right now, there's a, a congressman who, who, uh, allegedly mistreated his, his wife, who was the daughter of a, 24:26 a, a, another important politician in, in Ohio and, and Trump is j- jumping in and defending this congressperson Uh, so, uh, it's, you know, it's not that Trump, uh, called, uh, uh, Flávio and said, "I would like to recommend this person to be your vice presidential candidate," but it's very serious. 24:43 It's not a person from another political party. Flávio's had difficulty getting other political parties to clearly commit to building a coalition, so his, his coalition is a very narrow one. 24:53 And again, as I mentioned earlier, there will be a tendency after the first round for other far-right, uh, candidates to, 24:59 some of them to perhaps endorse Flávio, but others might decide it's better just to keep quiet right now and let him sink. Mm-hmm. 25:05 And be separate and not be associated with him so that that person can be a candidate in, in, uh, in '30. 25:12 And I, you know, I must say that Michelle Bo- Bolsonaro kind of performance at the convention and afterward has been extremely lukewarm, playing the, the card of saying, "Oh, I was preparing food for my husband," uh, you know, as if. 25:25 And, uh, a- a- and, and this inability to, to broaden out his coalition, which is, which is I think gonna be a v- a serious, uh, liability for, for Flávio Bolsonaro and his campaign. 25:36 Now, o- one thing that is quite interesting because I think that I do agree with you that, uh, the Flávio campaign has, uh, been... ha- has failed massively to draw support. 25:49 But I also think there, there is a structural explanation for all this because this is, uh, quite interesting that, um, only one candidate, Lula, the incumbent, has a coalition of multiple parties. 26:04 Everyone else has what we call like a poor bread, uh, ticket. So both vice president and presidential candidates are from the same party. 26:16 Uh, we, we had five coalitions in 2018, just three, four years ago, and now only Lula has one. And I think it shows, uh, 26:27 it, it tells you how parties are way more invested in the congressional races rather than the presidential one. Because in Brazil, uh, parties cannot accept corporate, um, money. They, they... corporate donations. 26:43 So the bulk of their money comes from a state fund that, uh, every year pays them and roughly speaking in accordance to their congressional benches. So it creates a loop that, uh, if you're big, you get more money. 27:00 If you get more money, you can run better campaigns and then get bigger, and so on and so forth. Uh, and I mean, the, the... 27:10 Brazil's main congressional parties, they don't see either L- neither Lula nor Flávio as strong enough to, for them to want to jump on their bandwagons before the election. 27:22 Also because they know that if they get big benches, regardless of who the winner is, they will have to court these parties, and they will have to pay for their, uh, uh, allegiance, uh, i- in post-election prices. 27:39 [laughs] You know, and there's another point, um, you made about, uh, party coalitions. When you have a coalition of other parties, you gain a number of minutes in terms of electoral propaganda. 27:48 So that means that the big bulk of, of electoral, uh, information will be coming from Lula's campaign. And I, I think we can say over time it's been fairly effective in terms of reaching a broad public. 27:59 And, um, we'll see what the, what the campaign is like this, this time round. Um, and it'll be much harder for the Liberal Party because it, it doesn't have as... 28:07 although it has a large number of members of Congress, therefore it is, a large, uh, amount of time will be allocated for it. 28:12 If it had added on two or three other parties, it would have really had much more significant, uh, uh, uh, time, uh, to reach the public. 28:19 Although, you know, one can argue that the public is a little saturated by these, uh, electoral campaign ads that are on TV and therefore kind of tuned them out. 28:28 But nevertheless, I think that's another, another difference. 28:30 And speaking-- I mean, the, the fact that other political parties are remaining neutral is not just, it's not just a question of being able to negotiate afterward, but it's also the, the need to be able to win in, in regional and local elections by building alliances regionally and locally in different, different states in which, um, you know, strange bedfellows are together in, in races that, that don't align if that pa- if that party is also officially endorsing, uh, Flávio Bolsonaro. 28:59 So there's a way in, in which these parties want to remain independent also to be able to guarantee that certain of their candidates get elected to, to governorships or to, to, to s- seats in, in co- in Congress at the same time. 29:12 Now, when, when we were talking about the television and radio ads, just, uh, for people to understand that I think this is quite fascinating about the Brazilian system, but you have, uh, a specific amount of time for all political ads. 29:27 They will come by together, I think something like 12, 13 minutes, uh, in the afternoon and then in the evening. And, uh, it is also just like the campaign money split in accordance to parties' congressional benches. 29:42 Now, like you said, these big ads that, uh, you have like a big program, uh, Lula win is going to have something like four or five minutes and Flávio a little less. 29:53 Uh, these are the ones that people usually tune out because they're long, they're boring. Uh, but then, uh, the real asset is that, uh, campaigns are also entitled to mini 30-second spots over day. 30:10 And, uh, the number of spots that you can run is proportional to, uh, the amount of, uh, of seats that your coalition has. So Lula is going to have way more than that. 30:22 And this is the real asset because they just come as regular ads, so it's not like the, the specific time for parties where people just, okay, I'm going to, to have lunch while or dinner while that boring stuff is, uh, being broadcast. 30:39 But, uh, viewers cannot, quote-unquote, "escape" the seconds because they're included in the schedule as, as regular pieces of adver- of advertisement. 30:48 So they tend to get voters more off-guard and be way puncher than the big, uh, television programs. 30:57 Yeah, so I mean, I think a- again, it, Lula has got an advantage in this, in this way, and I think it's, it's will have an effect. 31:03 Um, the, the, the big c- clear part is that large sector in the middle, the people who are not aligned, who are gonna vote at the last minute, who might tend to vote for who they think is the winner, who- whoever is, uh, is ahead in the polls, uh, a, a very much subjective, uh, vote many times for 31:23 s- sectors of that part of the, of the population that hasn't made up its mind. 31:28 Um, but, you know, and, and again, as I mentioned in previous, uh, of our conversations, I did this informal conversation with Uber drivers in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte, and what was really surprising was about two-thirds of the drivers self-declared that they were gonna vote for Flávio Bolsonaro even though I didn't ask them who they were gonna vote for. 31:45 I was really interested in who they thought was gonna win the election. And overwhelmingly, three-quarters of the... More than that, I think, said, declared that they thought Lula was gonna win. 31:55 So at this point- Mm-hmm... 31:56 two months before the election, there's a self-preservation, uh, perce- perception among many people who support Flávio that, like the World Cup, you know, we want to root for our team, but we know our team's not gonna win. 32:07 And I think that doesn't mean that people don't vote, but I think it means that they don't, they don't enthusiastically carry out the campaign. Again, much can happen in the next two months. 32:15 There's a lot of volatility that's, it's gonna be baked into the, to the, to the, the period ahead, and we'll have to see. Uh, I think... But it's interesting, though. 32:24 Even the accusations against Lula's son, I mean, Lula has said, "Look, if he's found guilty, I'm gonna, uh, he goes to jail." And that's not, I mean, that's not the way that the Bolsonaro family handles it. 32:34 So I think, uh, I think, uh, the candidate for senator, uh, Simone Tebet, uh, Tebetchi, who's, um, a, a, is candidate for senator of the state of São Paulo, has, I think, just yesterday declared that. 32:47 You know, if, if there is, if there's guilt found, that he should go to jail. And that's, that's, that's among the coalition of Lula's, Lula's, uh, uh, electoral forces. So I think that's, uh, significant as well. 32:58 We'll see. I'm not sure that's gonna be a big issue at the end of the day, but it may. It might be. It might explode in the next two months. Yeah. 33:04 I mean, uh, this, we're going to see a scandal after scandal between now and October the 4th, the first round. 33:13 Uh, now that, uh, the, the candidates are graved in stone, uh, that's when usually the big guns start being drawn because, uh, parties can no longer, uh, swap a candidate if they become me- damaged goods. 33:30 So now get your popcorns ready because, uh, the things are going to get real from now on. [laughs] No, it's gonna be a very, very significant period ahead. Um... 33:44 And James, I think that, uh, that's, uh, that's a wrap for this episode. 33:49 We're, we're going to keep monitoring the situation and, uh, I mean, there is never a dull moment in Brazil, so next time we're going to talk, probably a new major crisis or a new major scandal is going to be breaking. 34:04 So have a good one and- Great. Thanks once again for this lovely conversation. Thank you. 34:08 I put myself on mute for a minute because a, a very, uh, traditional, uh, firetruck from, uh, New York passed by right in front of my house, and so I had to kind of blot the sound out. But it's been great talking to you. 34:19 I think this is gonna be an exciting two months ahead. I'm looking forward to the conversation with you to figure out what the hell, what's going on and, and how we can make sense of, uh, of Brazil. 34:30 Have a great one, James. Thank you. Bye-bye. Thank you everyone for listening to, uh, our podcast.
