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Brazil is gearing up for general elections. In October, the public will elect a president, all 513 members of the House, two-thirds (54 seats) of the Senate, governors in each of Brazil’s 27 states, and state legislative assemblies.
The vote comes a year after the criminal conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s leading far-right figurehead. Parties on the right are seeking to seize on the opportunity to position themselves as a new (or future) option for the conservative electorate, but Bolsonaro’s sons and wife are aiming to keep electoral strength in the family.
In Congress, conservative parties that grew in previous elections are now targeting Senate seats more aggressively than ever. With a large enough majority there, right-wing parties would secure greater leverage to apply pressure on the Supreme Court. Justices’ power has become not only part of political calculations but also a key issue among voters.
Meanwhile, current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking his fourth, non-consecutive term. With solid economic results, he is the polls’ favorite, but faces entrenched opposition from a significant share of a deeply divided electorate. What’s more, the left has no other viable contender beyond the 80-year-old veteran.
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So which groups will decide the election? What will be the key campaign issues? And which party movements could reshape the electoral landscape in the year ahead?
To tackle these questions, our Editor in Chief Gustavo Ribeiro will be talking to two distinct experts. Get to know them:
🔹 Meet our experts
Márcia Cavallari. Cluster Director at Ipsos-Ipec, one of the leading public opinion polling firms operating in Brazil, and vice president of the Brazilian Association of Research Companies. A statistician with a master’s degree in Political Science from the University of Connecticut, Cavallari has 40 years of experience leading polling and data analysis, including election-focused research. She is also a member of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and of ESOMAR, an international association of research and insights professionals.
Oswaldo Amaral Political science professor at the University of Campinas and researcher at its Center for Public Opinion Studies, which he directed from 2017 to 2024. He holds a PhD in political science and has been a visiting researcher at the universities of Oxford (UK), Notre Dame (USA), and the Sorbonne (France), as well as a visiting professor at the University of Salamanca (Spain).
👉 Reminder: You can leave questions for our experts in advance using the comment box at the bottom of this page, which you will also be able to use to interact during the live event.
This event was produced by Reporter Isabela Cruz.
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